Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 AM EST WED APR 1 1998

MAIN WX PROBLEM THIS FCST PD WL CONTINUE TO BE FLOODING.  WARNINGS
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF FA...AND THESE WL ALL BE EXTENDED.
FLOOD WATCH UP FOR ENTIRE REGION THRU THURS...AND SEE NO REASON TO
ALTER THIS.

CDFNT...WHICH AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY APPEARED AS IF IT WOULD ONLY
IMPACT XTRM NRN SECTIONS...HAS PLUNGED SOUTH OF FA...AND LOOKS AS IF
WL DROP INTO SRN NEW ENG BFR BCMG STNRY.  IT WL THEN ATTEMPT A
RETURN NORTH AS WRMFNT THIS PM.  MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS
SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WELL AT ALL (I DONT REMEMBER FCSTG A 40 DEGREE
TEMP DROP FOR ST LWR OR CHMPLN VLY FOR YESTERDAY PM)...AND SEE NO
REASON FOR THIS TO CHNG.  XPC FNT TO STRUGGLE IN ITS RETURN NORTH
TDA...PERHAPS REACHING INTO ADRNDKS AND SRN VT LATE IN DAY.

THE COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPS AND FACT THAT SNOWPACK HAS BEEN
FURTHER REDUCED BY YESTERDAYS RECORD WARMTH HAS ALLOWED WATER LEVELS
ON RIVERS TO STABILIZE OR RECEDE A BIT TONIGHT...ALTHO MOST ARE IN
FLOOD AT THIS POINT.  THEY WL RMN IN FLOOD TDA DUE TO RAIN AND PSBL
T-STRMS WITH APRCH OF FRONTAL SYS.

JUST SCT SHWRS ACRS FA ATTM...BUT XPC OVERRUNNING RAINS TO DVLP THIS
AM AS FNT BEGINS RETURN NORTH.  XPC WDSPRD .50 TO 1.00 INCH RAIN
TOTALS ACRS FA NEXT 24 HRS WITH LOCALLY HIR AMTS PSBL NRN VT WHERE
THETA E MAX FCST.  AMTS GREATER THAN AN INCH ALSO PSBL IN ADRNDKS
WHERE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS GREATEST THIS PM.

OCCLUSION WL MOV ACRS RGN FROM SW-NE BTWN 00Z-06Z...AFT WHICH THREAT
OF SGFNT RAIN WL END.  TEMPS WL LIKELY BE WARMER WITH PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE.  COLD POOL ALF WL MOVE ACRS RGN THU/THU NITE AND THIS
WL RESULT IN MORE SHWRS....WHICH MAY CHNG TO SNOW IN MTNS LATER
THURS AS LOWER LVLS OF ATMOS BEGIN TO COOL.

WOULD GO BLO FWC TEMPS TDA.  TEMPS SHUD RISE TO FCSTD MINS TNGT.
FWC TEMPS THURS LOOK A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM.

RJS