Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EST TUE MAR 31 1998

DISC...COORD WITH ALB.  MAIN PROBLEM THIS FCST PD WL CONTINUE TO BE
FLOODING.  FLOOD WATCHES UP ACRS ALL OF FA...AND WOULD RECOMMEND
THEY BE EXTENDED THRU WED.  NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY IN
EFFECT.  BULK OF RAINFALL TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN OVR NORTHERNMOST
TIER OF ZONES...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY THIS HAS BEEN WHERE MOST SFGFNT
FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WL CONTINUE ACRS NORTH COUNTRY THRU WED.
SNOW CVR RAPIDLY DECREASING...AND AFT ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF WARM
TEMPS...IT WL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.  BUT PRESENTLY...IT IS STILL
CONTRIBUTING TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS.

MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL TDA WL BE ALG FNT LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
CANADIAN BORDER ATTM.  THIS FNT WL RMN JUST ABT STNRY THIS AM...BUT
THEN BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH AS CDFNT THIS PM.  MODELS DIFFER A BIT AS TO
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FNT AND ASSOCD SHALLOW LYR OF COOL AIR WL PROGRESS
BFR ONCE AGAIN BCMG STNRY...BUT MAIN EFFECT WL BE IN ZONES ALG
CANADIAN BORDER.

CDFNT WL THEN SWEEP EAST FROM GRTLKS ON WED...RESULTING IN A MORE
WDSPRD RAINFALL...WHICH WL FURTHER INCR THREAT OF SERIOS FLOODING.
STG LLVL JET IN ADVANCE OF CDFNT...ALG WITH MDT INSTABILITY MAY
RESULT IN ISOLD SVR STORMS AS WELL.

LIKELY POPS PREFERRED TDA FOR ZONES ALG CANADIAN BORDER...CHC POPS
FOR REST OF NRN ZONES.  FWC POPS LOOK OK TON/WED.  FWC TEMPS
GENERALLY ACCEPTED...BUT TOUGH FOR MAX TEMPS TDA NRN TIER OF ZONES.

ALB: WRKZFP LOOKS FINE.

RJS