Flash Flood Warning 104, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
210 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 1998

TWO AREAS OF MOD-HVY RA AND TSRA. AREAL MVMT IS SLOW AND 88D EST .75
TO 1.00 PER ONE HOUR FEW PLACES. 3 HR PCPN NR 1.50. WUD LEAVE FFA
THRU MORNING. CNTRL VT AND NE NY ARE MAIN CONCERN ATTM. LWR DWPTS
STILL WL N NEAR QUEBEC CITY.

NTRANS SFC ANAL SHOWS STG SFC MSTR CONVC IN NE NY ASSOC WITH WK SFC
LO. SAT PIX DOES SHOW ENHANCE TOPS MOVG E BUT MDLS (INCL RUC2) GIVE
1/2 TO 1 IN RA IN NRN VT THRU 15Z. VOT MAX DPCTD TO MOV SE ACRS CWA
THRU 18Z. MDLS SIMILAR THRU 18Z BUT AFTERWARDS ETA CONSISTENT FM
OTHER RUNS SHOW A WK SFC TROF LINGERS JUST N. ALSO ETA VERY SLOW IN
BRINGING LESS HUMID AIR INTO NRN NY/W VT. IN FACT PWS NOW NR 1.75
AND STILL AT 1 IN BY 12Z SUN. CAPES LESS THAN 500/LIS -2 TDA. STILL
PSBL FOR TSRA.

TNGT SFC RDG TRIES TO BUILD TO FA. HARD TO IGNORE ETA LLVL AND MID
MSTR. BST WORDING MAY BE VRBL CLDY OR P/C. ETA GIVES LGT PCPN. DWPTS
NVR GET BLO THE LOW 60S IN ST. LAW VLY. CHC POP MAY BE NEEDED BUT
BOTH FWC/FAN ARE ZERO

SUN MDL DIFF CONT. H5 HGTS RISE AS TROF PULLS AWAY. ETA HAS CAPES
OVR 1000 J/KG IN NRN NY WHILE NGM IS STABLE. SFC HI MVS EAST ON BOTH
ETA/NGM AS WAA STARTS IN NW NY. CHC POPS AGN MAY BE NEEDED THERE THO
AIRMASS IS FCST TO BE DRIER THAN ITS BEEN FOR AWHILE. MSTR MAY ONLY
BE SUFF FOR ISOLD ACTVTY.

MDLS FCST TEMPS CONT TO DIFFER. ETA 2M TMPS RNG FM 70 TO 80 TDA AND
TMRW FM E TO W. PLEASE RMV EDITORIAL NOTES IN FCST. KMSS HI YDA WAS
79 SO COOLER DOES NOT CUT IT.

TARDY