Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
210 AM CDT MON OCT 19 1998

RAIN COVERAGE LESSENING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN KENEDY AND THE
CAMERON/HIDALGO COUNTY BORDER. SATELLITE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS
SO ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THIS LESSENING TREND. THIS IS NOT TO
SAY THAT ALL OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS OVER...AS SOME SHOWERS COULD
STILL PUMP OUT OVER AN INCH AN HOUR. KENEDY COUNTY WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO HANDLE MUCH MORE...THUS IF THEY GET ANOTHER ROUND ANYWHERE NEAR
THE LATEST BATCH...A WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. COULD NOT FIND ANY
SERIOUS FLOOD PROBLEMS THERE THUS FAR WITH LATEST ROUND OF PHONE
CALLS. RAIN OCCURRING WITH AN IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH IS SITUATED NNE TO SSW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. OBSERVATION FROM MCALLEN SHOWING NORTH WIND AND SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER ON THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN NEXT FEW DAYS IT APPEARS.

EVENING MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERNECES...WITH NGM AND ETA APPEARING
TO BE LESS GUNG-HO ON THE RAIN THAN THE AVN. NGM APPEARS DRIEST AS
IT ROTATES AREA OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ANTICYCLONICALLY...WHILE
ETA AND AVN ROTATE THE MOISTURE THRU HERE. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS AT THIS POINT...WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND NONETHELESS.
FRONT NOW STALLED OVER THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT/THRU.
MODELS HINT AT SOUTH END OF FRONT MORE OR LESS WASHING OUT AS IT
LIFTS EAST AND NORTH...LEAVING THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL FORCING TO
OUR NORTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOOKS LIKE WHAT IS LEFT OF FRONT
MOVES THRU BROWNSVILLE TOMORROW EVENING OR EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THEN THE COOLER AIR IS ALLOWED TO GRADUALLY FILTER IN. COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON THUS FAR TO MAKE IT IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN
PROBLEM FOR NOW THO IS THE RAIN. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSING
MECHANISM...THO ANY BIG IMPULSES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FOR TODAY I
CANNOT SEE AS OF YET. WITH PLETHORA OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND
FRONT OVER THE AREA TODAY...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS.
THUS FLOOD/FLASH-FLOOD WATCH STILL NEEDED.

CWF...CURRENT TREND LOOKS FINE. STILL NEED SCA FLAG FOR SEAS. WOULD
FEEL BETTER ABOUT NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RATHER THAN
EAST. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SPEEDS UP...BUT NOT
LIKELY TO MEET SCA CRITERIA. WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO DROP FLAG
LATE TODAY.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY...

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S WEST...LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EAST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
NEAR 15 MPH WEST...AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND NEAR 15 MPH EAST.

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY AND COOLER WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WEST...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
EAST. NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 70S.

BRO TW 082/069 077/064 075  50/40/50/40
MFE TW 075/065 077/062 075  50/40/50/40
RGC TW 077/063 075/060 076  50/40/50/40
SPI TW 080/071 075/065 074  50/40/50/40

VALONE...61