Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
215 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1998

CURRENT RADAR/SAT LOOPS CONT TO SHOW WAVES OF SHWRS/TSTMS EXTENDING EWD
FROM THE NRN LKS RGN ACRS SRN ONT/LK ONT INTO NRN NYS.  ONE S/W TROF
MOVG INTO SRN QUE ATTM IS CURRENTLY FEEDING ACTIVITY JUST N OF THE CWA.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER VORT MAX UPSTREAM APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
COOLING CLD TOPS NEAR GEORGIAN BAY.  XPCT BANDS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE
PRIMARILY ALG AND N OF THE WARM FRNT THIS MRNG AS THIS NEXT WV SCOOTS
BY.  AGN...MUCH OF THIS ACTION SHUD BYPASS OUR FA.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR YET A THIRD S/W NOW OVER WI TO MOVE IN LTR THIS AFTN
AND INITIATE CONVECTION FURTHER S.  GIVEN THE PRESUMPTION OF DECENT HTG
TDY BASED ON TRENDS OF SAT PIX AND THE EXISTENCE OF BNDRYS ACRS CNY FROM
OVRNT TSTMS TO THE N...A RENEWED ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA SHUD OCCUR THIS
AFTN UNDER INFLUENCE OF ABV MENTIONED WV.  LO MOS POPS WILL BE IGNORED
AS I/LL BASICALLY MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS.  ETA
PROFILES SHOW INCRG VERT SHEAR THIS AFTN AS LL JET DVLPS ACRS WRN/CNTRL
NYS.  IN FACT...EHI/S OF 2.0+ ARE SEEN AT SYR/RME.  IF THESE TYPE OF
SHEAR PARAMETERS DO COME TO FRUITION...ISOLD SUPERCELLS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.  AT THIS PT...THO...WON/T FLY OFF THE HANDLE.  DAY CREW
CAN ADD ENHANCED WORDING IF NEEDED.

TNT...WE SHUD EXPERIENCE A LULL AS NVA TEMPORARILY SETS IN AND DIURNAL
STABILIZATION OCCURS.  INSERTED CHC POPS THIS EVE FOR ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY FROM THE DAYLGT HRS.  ALSO THREW IN PATCHY FOG WITH SOUPY AMS
PRESENT AND WET GRND CONDS IN SPOTS.

TUE...MODELS SIMILAR IN MOVG NEXT S/W INTO THE RGN FROM THE W.  SOME UL
DIFFLUENCE ALSO DVLPS.  SINCE FAIRLY HI THETA-E AMS WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE...MORE SHRA/TSRA SHUD FORM WITH MAIN EMPHASIS XPCTD ARND MAX HTG
TIME.  WENT ABV MOS POPS AGN.

STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MACHINE TEMPS THRU TNT...THEN SHADED A LTL BLO
THEM ON TUE WITH MORE CLDS ANTICIPATED.

WRK ZNS SENT.

.BGM...NONE.

JUREWICZ

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-241550-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION TODAY.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND ENCOUNTERS THIS WARM MOIST AIR MASS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RESULT.

ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO INTENSIFY TO
SEVERE LIMITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST IN NEW YORK ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HORNELL
TO WATKINS GLEN TO ITHACA AND COOPERSTOWN.  STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

IF THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER BECOMES MORE CONCRETE...WATCHES
AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

JUREWICZ

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-241550-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION TODAY.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND ENCOUNTERS THIS WARM MOIST AIR MASS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RESULT.

ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO INTENSIFY TO
SEVERE LIMITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST IN NEW YORK ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HORNELL
TO WATKINS GLEN TO ITHACA AND COOPERSTOWN.  STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

IF THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER BECOMES MORE CONCRETE...WATCHES
AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

JUREWICZ