Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EST THU JAN 8 1998

ANOTHER VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST PACKAGE. BOUNDARY FROM NE NY TO SW NY
CONTINUES TO DIVIDE VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE 60S FROM 30S TO THE NORTH.
ETA WAVERS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING IT INTO CENTRAL NY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  WAVES WILL FORM ALONG BOUNDARY...WITH SECONDARY LOW
GENERATED OVER E NY IN RESPONSE TO U/L DYNAMICS. SECONDARY LOW PROVIDES
EXTRA PULL TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH FA LATE AFTERNOON FRI...BRINGING
A HARSH END TO UNUSUALLY MILD WX PATTERN.

EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT -SHRA OVER FA.  SECOND
BATCH OF PCP EXPECTED FOR SAT AM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE MOVING NNE THROUGH PA/NY.  SHORT WAVE SHOULD PASS OVER BOUNDARY
AND ENHANCE UPWARD MOTION OVER C NY.  THEN SECONDARY LOW FORMS AND PCP
DIMINISHES BEHIND IT.

NGM PUSHES BOUNDARY TO FAR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN OVERDEVELOPS E NY LOW.
MAIN JET IS TO WEST ASSOC WITH LAKE MI LOW.  ETA PROVIDES MORE
REASONABLE SOLN...THOUGH SECONDARY LOW STILL DOMINATES OUR WX FOR LATER
PERIODS.

MEANDERING OF BOUNDARY COULD CAUSE MAJOR TEMP HEADACHES IN ZNS.  MY
THINKING IS C SO TIER WILL PUSH INTO UPPER 40S OR NEAR 50 MID AFT FRI
AFTER FRONT MOVES NORTH.  COMMENTS WELCOME.

ZNS BY 210 PM.

.BGM...RVR FLD WARNING FOR SUSQUEHANNA RVR BASIN IN NY/NE PA
       RVR FLD WARNING FOR CHEMUNG RVR BASIN AND NE PA EXCEPT PIKE PA.
       FLD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NY / NE PA

PADAVONA