Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT THU JUN 25 1998

FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT...EVENING TSRA CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT...
LOW TEMPERATURES.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK LOW IN NORTHWEST WI IN REPSONSE TO THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR KDLH.  A VORT LOBE TRAILED SOUTH OF
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN WI...WHILE A COOL FRONT/CONVERGENCE LINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR A KHYR-KEAU-KRST LINE.  SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED RAPIDLY
AROUND 18Z IN THE FAVORABLE LIFT AREA OF THE FRONT/VORT LOBE...
MARGINALLY SEVERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COUPLE REPORTS OF DIME
SIZED HAIL. SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA REMAINED PRIMED FOR SEVERE LATER
TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND SURFACE BASED LI/S
AROUND -10 AND A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE.  CAP HOLDING FOR THE TIME
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

12Z MODELS MOVE THE SHORTWAVE TO EASTERN LK SUPERIOR BY 26/12Z WITH A
SHORWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE AREA BY FRI MORNING.
APPEARS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT LOBE AND
SURFACE COOL FRONT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...PLUS WARMING...SINKING AND DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS BUILDS AN EVEN STRONGER CAP OVER THE AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  THIS TO BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

UPPED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EAST PARTS OF
THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION.  AVN-FAN/NGM-FWC/ETA 2M
GRIDPOINT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT ALL QUITE SIMILAR AND LOOK
REASONABLE.

RRS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 25 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0135 AM    ROME                      WI   WIND DAMAGE
06/25/98   ADAMS                          LARGE TREES WERE BLOWN
                                          DOWN.

0220 AM    MONDOVI                   WI   WIND DAMAGE
06/25/98   BUFFALO                        A COOP OBSERVER REPORTED
                                          LARGE TREES DOWN.

SHEA

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 25 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0135 AM    ROME                      WI   WIND DAMAGE
06/25/98   ADAMS                          LARGE TREES WERE BLOWN
                                          DOWN.

0220 AM    MONDOVI                   WI   WIND DAMAGE
06/25/98   BUFFALO                        A COOP OBSERVER REPORTED
                                          LARGE TREES DOWN.

SHEA

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1215 PM CDT THU JUN 25 1998

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF WISCONSIN
RAPIDS TO LA CROSSE TO WATERLOO LINE.  EAST OF THIS LINE THE AIRMASS IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR DULUTH MN
IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE AREA ARE WARMING AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.  THE
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...
BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

RRS