Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1128 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 1998

12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON...APPROACHING
LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID AFTERNOON AND ENTERING NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER TOWARD EVENING. ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A
NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED THROUGH THE PLAINS.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON ARE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
AND SEVERITY. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL
BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX
TO ALREADY BE THINNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AS
THIS OCCURS...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODIFYING THE 12Z APX SOUNDING
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S
PRODUCES CAPES OF AROUND 3400 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF AROUND -9.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 200 PM IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH ASSISTANCE
FROM A MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH OF AIR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...E XPECT SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

NORCROSS

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-201200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 1998

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG...AND IN ADVANCE
OF...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS CROSSING CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER 200 PM. THE STORMS WILL THEN
ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL
GREATER THAN 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE THUNDERSTORMS. ALL THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR
THE LATEST WEATHfER INFORMATION CONCERNING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

NORCROSS