Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1105 AM EDT WED MAY 6 1998

VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT INITIATED A LONE THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT
ACROSS GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES AND ANOTHER ISOLATED CELL NEAR FNT
STILL EXTENDS FROM AROUND THE BAY AREA TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SRN
WI. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY IS EXTREMELY HARD TO PICK OUT GIVEN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME AND WILL LIKELY BECOME EVEN HARDER TO SEE IN THE SFC
ANALYSIS AS LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN
SOME OF THE DIURNAL SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. APX
12Z MODIFIED SOUNDING YIELDS LIS OF -3...TTS IN THE LOW 40S AND CAPE
OF AROUND 600 TO 700. WITH LIGHT WIND...WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDER THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY AND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
WOULD ALSO EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY ISOLD THUNDER WILL OCCUR IN
FAR SRN COUNTIES NEAR THE LEFT-OVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDRY FROM OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MUCH OF NRN LOWER AND WILL
REMAIN AS SUCH AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
LAKESHORES. A SLIGHTLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SRN LOWER MI SOUTH OF THAT OLD BOUNDARY...SO SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER FROM MBL TO HTL TO TAWAS.

WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NRN LOWER MI FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL INTRODUCE THE MENTION OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE IN SRN
COUNTIES. WILL ALSO REWORD WIND FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMP FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE WITH
THE GOING SITUATION...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

EME

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-062330-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1150 AM EDT WED MAY 6 1998

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER 200 PM EDT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO GRAYLING TO HARRISVILLE. THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. NONE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. AGAIN...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TODAY.

TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL CABLE OR RADIO STATION...OR THE
INTERNET FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ON
THE INTERNET USE WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX.

EME