Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
247 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 1998

WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE NOW AS THE PANHANDLES ARE IN BETWEEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IN EASTERN COLORADO.  SHORT WAVE OVER
THE PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO OUR EAST WHILE A WEST TO
EAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.  WILL GO WILL AREAL
COVERAGES AND KEEP POPS UP IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS AND
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS COULD PUT THE
PANHANDLES IN A NORTH FLOW BY MID TO LATE WEEK.  THIS FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ADD SOME SHEAR.
WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK ANY CAP WE MAY HAVE.  WE WILL
ALSO PROBABLY HAVE DAILY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO ASSESS.  WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

THE MODELS ARE NOT GOING TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOR THE
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE...SO TOOK A LITTLE BIT OF
GUIDANCE FROM EACH MODEL.

THANK YOU FOR THE COORDINATION DDC.

A FEW NUMBERS TO PONDER:

DHT 66/96 67/98 66 625
AMA 68/96 67/99 69 524
BVR 70/95 71/99 72 424

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

GOEHRING