Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 AM CST SAT OCT 31 1998

IT SURE LOOKS LIKE MOTHER NATURE IS GIVING THE TX/OK PNHDLS MORE
IN THE WAY OF TRICKS AS OPPOSED TO TREATS THIS HALLOWEEN. SVR WX AND
FLOODING RAINS THE THEME SONG FRIDAY...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EXPECTED AGAIN FIRST TWO PERIODS. SO FAR
AS OF 09Z AMA HAS MEASURED 2.61 INCHES SINCE THE EVENT STARTED FRI
AFTN...WITH RAIN STILL FALLING AND MORE TO COME. AMA WSR-88D AND
GROUND TRUTH REPORTS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AS OF 09Z...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY SWRN AND SCNTRL TX
PNHDL. NEEDLESS TO SAY...FLOODING IS FAST BECOMING A PROBLEM WITH
SVRL COUNTIES UNDER FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS NOW. RIVERS ARE ALSO
BECOMING A CONCERN. WITH ALL THIS RAIN AND MORE TO COME DURG THE
NEXT 24 HRS...IT CERTAINLY APPEARS TO THIS FCSTR THAT WHATEVER
LOCATIONS WERE STILL IN A DROUGHT ARE NOT ANYMORE.

LATEST HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTNDG FROM CNTRL
OK TO NEAR CDS TO S OF LBB TO GDP. SFC LOW E OF ELP WITH PACIFIC
COLD FRONT EXTNDG S OF IT INTO OLD MEXICO. DO NOT EXPECT THE STNRY
BOUNDARY TO MOVE ALL THAT MUCH FURTHER NWD...AND AS SUCH IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIP ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL AZ MOVG ESEWD SLOWLY AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN WX CONCERN TODAY
AND SUNDAY. 00Z ETA/AVN/NGM ACTUALLY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THRU 48 HRS IN HANDLING THE SWRN US CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN
IT IS TRACKING FURTHER S AND JUST A PINCH SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
SUGGESTED...WHICH HINTS AT PRECIP CHCS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORESO.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SCNTRL AZ TO SERN NM BY 12Z SUN...
THEN TO NCNTRL TX BY 00Z MON. DESPITE MODELS AGREEMENT AT UPPER
LEVELS...DO LEAN MORE WITH ETA HANDLING OF PRECIP PATTERN AND SFC
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW.

IN ANY CASE...THE WORD IS WET BASED ON PROGGED TRACK OF THE LOW.
PLENTY OF DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH MOISTURE...UPSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW...
AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR HIGH
POPS FIRST 2 PERIODS. FOR OBVIOUS REASONS...PLAN ON RETAINING
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES FOR TODAY...THEN EXTEND IT THROUGH
SECOND PERIOD AS WELL SINCE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED AND CANNOT
TAKE A LOT MORE IF AT ALL.

CHC POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS WELL DUE TO SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FURTHER SWD
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHCS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT. WILL ASSESS
EXTENDED PERIODS IF TIME PERMITS. EARLY THOUGHTS ARE TO PRETTY MUCH
LEAVE AS IS...PENDING ON NEW MRF/ECMWF/UKMET. RUNNING AGAINST THE
CLOCK SO WILL STOP. PRELIM VALUES FOLLOW. COORDINATED WITH LBB.

DHT 52/39/49  ++5
GUY 52/39/49  ++5
AMA 56/43/51  ++5

.AMA...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES 001>020 UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES 001>003 UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY.

ANDRADE