Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT MON JUL 14 1997

MESONET SHOWING WK SFC TROF ALONG I-44 WITH DWPTS
POOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG BNDRY.
THERE ARE SOME DECENT NNE WINDS N OF THE BNDRY IN AREAS N AND W OF
TULSA. VIS SAT PICS SHOW CU FIELD INCREASING SOME IN THIS AREA AND
ALSO N INTO SC/SE KS. APPEARS TO BE SOME SPIN IN DEBRIS CLOUDS IN
KS...LEFT FROM THIS MORN'S CONVECTION IN SW KS...AND THIS FEATURE
SHOULD DRIFT SE INTO NE OK/NW ARK THIS EVE. SO EVEN THO RADAR IS
CURRENTLY QUIET...WITH THE AMT OF INSTABLILTY AVAILABLE WILL KEEP
AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS  FOR TSRA THIS EVE ACRS FA.

AT FIRST LOOK...REST OF FCST LOOKS HOT AND DRY WITH UPPER RDG JUST
W OF FA. BUT FA WILL REMAIN IN A PATTERN THAT CAN BRING A SURPRISE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ROUND OF PCP. H7 TMPS FCST TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 8-10 DEG C WITH DIFLUENT H85-H3 THICKNESS HEADED INTO FA IN
NW FLO. H85 SSW WINDS AT 20-30 KNTS FCST INTO W/C KS TONIGHT IN H85
MOIST AXIS SHUD MOVE E INTO E KS/C OK TUE NIGHT. WON'T INCLUDE ANY
POPS OVR 20% IN LATER PERIODS IN THIS PACKAGE...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO PONDER THIS FURTHER.

SOME DRIER LLVL AIR WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO NRN ZNS TONIGHT AND MAY
BRING SOME HUMIDIY RELIEF ON TUE. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY IN SRN
ZNS HOWEVER...WHERE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY REMIAN. HOT TMPS WILL CONT
INTO WED...WITH ONLY PSBL RELIEF COMING FROM ANY DEBRIS CLDS FROM
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.

EXTENDED LOOKS HOT WITH LTL CHC FOR PCP AS UPPER RDG REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVR THE CENTRAL U.S.
/13
TUL  073/095 076/096 077 2112
FSM  072/096 071/096 071 2111
MLC  072/097 071/097 073 2111
BVO  070/096 072/097 074 21-3
FYV  067l/092 066/092 069 21-2
IDB  069/097 068/097 069 2111
BYV  065/091 066/091 068 2--2
.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>076-151100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT MON JUL 14 1997

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY ALOFT WAS GENERATING A FEW CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON A FEW
OF THESE CLOUDS MAY BECOME THUNDERSTORMS.  DUE TO A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ANY STORM WHICH DOES FORM MAY RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE.
DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM THEY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE LOSS OF HEATING FROM THE SUN
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND SLTORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>076-151100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT MON JUL 14 1997

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY ALOFT WAS GENERATING A FEW CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON A FEW
OF THESE CLOUDS MAY BECOME THUNDERSTORMS.  DUE TO A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ANY STORM WHICH DOES FORM MAY RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE.
DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM THEY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE LOSS OF HEATING FROM THE SUN
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.