Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
300 PM EDT WED JUN 11 1997

SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA DVLPG OVR THE FA AS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO WCSB
AND E-W ORIENTED SFC TROF FM NR APF TO PBI...AND THE MID LVL DRYING
WHICH LIKELY INCREASED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. BNDRY INTERACTIONS MAY
PRODUCE STGR TSRA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THRU THE EVENING.

AS WNDS BECOME LGT LATE TNGT...LOW CLDS/SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVER THE FA...ESPECIALLY OVR CURRENT RAIN AREAS.

MODELS PROG UPR SHRTWV TO MOV ACRS THE FA LATER TNGT/THU..HWR MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES THU DUE TO
MORE SWLY AMBIENT FLOW IN RESPONSE TO DIMINISHING SFC TROF AND AS
SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRES TAKES OVER.

11

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-111900-
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
1100 AM EDT WED JUN 11 1997

   ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER
...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS AND MARINERS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN TO RADIO
...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TELEVISION...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD SEEK A REINFORCED BUILDING
WHILE MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO
REPORT ADVERSE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RUSKIN FLORIDA.

COLLINS

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-111900-
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
1100 AM EDT WED JUN 11 1997

   ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER
...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS AND MARINERS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN TO RADIO
...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TELEVISION...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD SEEK A REINFORCED BUILDING
WHILE MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO
REPORT ADVERSE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RUSKIN FLORIDA.

COLLINS