Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
304 AM EDT SAT APR 26 1997

SFC HIGH TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY.  LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE AND VEER
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY.  U/L RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY OVER THE
PENINSULA WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISING SLOWLY INCREASING STABILITY.
88D RADAR SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 75 MILES WEST
OF RRF TO 100 MILES WEST OF SRQ SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT THEY HAVE WEAKENED IN
THE PAST  HOUR..  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM 15 TO
35 MILES OFFSHORE OF CLEARWATER.  THIS COULD INDICATE TREND THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS SHORE AND COULD BE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.  DONT THINK STORMS WILL BE SEVERE THIS
MORNING OVER LAND...BELIEVE SEVERE CELLS WELL OFFSHORE WERE GETTING A
BOOST FROM THE LOOP CURRENT...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

TOUGH FORECAST TODAY.  00Z TBW SOUNDING WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LI -5...
SHOWALTER INDEX -4...CAPE 2200...SWEAT NEAR 400.  HAD A FEW SEVERE CELLS
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND SINCE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN AS UNSTABLE
TODAY WITH GOOD U/L DIFFLUENCE BELIEVE A FEW STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
TODAY.  AND SINCE LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS INCREASING...THIS WILL
SUPPORT ACTIVITY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

SUGGESTIONS...WOULD INCREASE POPS FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTH TO
LIKELY WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES.  WOULD
ALSO INDICATE A F^EW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SOUTH OF HERNANDO COUNTY.

OGLESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-261600-
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT SAT APR 26 1997

      ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND SPREADING ONSHORE OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
AND THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HUDSON TO HAINES CITY LINE.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED SHORT
LIVED TORNADOES...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.

ALL RESIDENTS AND MARINERS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD STAY
ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.  MARINERS MUST REACT
QUICKLY AND RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
ALL SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE
ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF ADVERSE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS THROUGH THE
DAY.

OGLESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-261600-
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT SAT APR 26 1997

      ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND SPREADING ONSHORE OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
AND THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HUDSON TO HAINES CITY LINE.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED SHORT
LIVED TORNADOES...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.

ALL RESIDENTS AND MARINERS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD STAY
ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.  MARINERS MUST REACT
QUICKLY AND RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
ALL SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE
ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF ADVERSE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS THROUGH THE
DAY.

OGLESBY