Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
217 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 1997

EXTREMELY WET AROUND THE FA TONIGHT AS DELUGE OF RAIN CONTS TO
AFFECT THE REGION FM TPA S AND SW. ATTM 88D FM KBYX (KEY WEST) AND
88D HERE AT KTBW ALONG WITH IR SATL LOOP CONTS TO INDICATE A LARGE
AREA OF TRPCL MSTR AND HEAVY CNVTN CONTG TO STREAM N AND NEWD FM
CARIBBEAN. TRENDS FM 88D SHOW A SLIGHT ESEWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST RAIN
DURING THE PAST HR OR SO...SO PINELLAS COUNTY WHICH WAS HARDEST HIT
WITH 9-12 INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER TDY MAY SEE A LET UP IN THE RAIN
DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL CNVTN DVLPG OVER
THE GLF WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MORE RAIN RE-DVLP IN THESE AREAS LATER
THIS MORNG.

ATTM WOULD SUGGEST CONTG WITH THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF TDY AND
WITH THE SLIGHT E-SEWD SHIFT TO THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AND MORE MOVG
NEWD WOULD LIKE TO SEE CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN WATCH
AS WELL. AFTER QUICK LOOK AT MODELS DON'T SEE MUCH CHANGE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH POSITION OF CLOSED
UPR LOW AND DVLPG SFC LOW OVER NERN GLF. ALL MODELS PROG THESE
FEATURES TO BEGIN TO MOVE NEWD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS AS NEXT
UPSTREAM SHRT/WV NOW OVER THE ROCKYS MOVES SEWD AND KICKS IT ENEWD.
UNTIL THEN ALL MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE HIGH POPS WITH CONTD THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINS ACRS THE FA. ON SUN ETA/NGM ARE FASTER THAN AVN WITH
SHIFTING DEEP MSTR AXIS EWD AND MOVG DRIER AIR INTO THE FA. ATTM
FEEL ETA/NGM MAY BE A LTL FAST WITH THIS AS 850 MB TROUGH WL STILL BE
WELL TO THE W SO PREFER SLOWER LOOKING AVN WITH STILL A FAIRLY GOOD
CHC OF PRECIP. ALSO WITH DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EWD AND FAIRLY
GOOD PVA...WE MAY SEE CHC FOR SOME STRONG CNVTN VS HEAVY RAINS. TIME
WL TELL.

SUGGESTION FOR TDY...KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS GOING WITH MENTION OF
HEAVY RAINS FM TPA TO LAL S AND CHC TO GOOD CHC CAT ELSEWHERE. WOULD
ALSO LIKE TO SEE FFA EXTENDED THRU TDY BUT TAKE OUT LEVY AND CITRUS
COUNTIES AND PUT CHARLOTTE AND LEE INTO THE FFA. BIG QUESTION TDY WL
BE TO TRY AND FIGURE OUT WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN AREA WL SET UP. ATTM
BASED ON SLIGHT ESEWD SHIFT OF THIS AREA THIS MORNG VIA 88D...IT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY EXTND FM SAY SUMTER SWWD THRU ERN HILLSBOROUGH AND
POLK SWWD TO FMY. AS FOR TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST STAYING SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THANKS FOR COORD MIA.

MCMICHAEL