Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1048 AM EST SAT NOV 1 1997

CRNT ZONE FCSTS STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD...BUT MAY UPDATE BIG BEND
ZONES TO MENTION THAT MAIN THREAT WILL BE DRG LATE AFTN HRS. WILL
ALSO UPDATE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT SINCE SPC
HAS MODIFIED PREVIOUS OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE MDT RISK FOR ALL OF MY
CWA.

MOLLERE

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ121>131-142>148-155>161-011900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1120 AM EST SAT NOV 1 1997

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND BIG BEND.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION...DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTENDING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA....SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE GREATEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

STORMZ SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON SINCE
SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.