Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
159 PM CDT WED APR 16 1997

PREFRONTAL TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWING ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WITH KSJT AND KJCT OBSERVATIONS NOW SHOWING
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH...FROM
BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND TO SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ONE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
THE RED RIVER EARLIER TODAY IS NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SECOND SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH BETTER MOISTURE THAN FIRST PREDICTED AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND THEN THE FRONT...THINK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING... INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AND STORM CHANCES
SHOULD WANE. AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF SOME LOW CLOUDS BY SUNRISE AS UPSLOPE
FLOW BEGINS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...LIKE THE WARMER FWC NUMBERS FOR
FORECAST LOWS.

FOR THURSDAY...ETA AND NGM SIMILAR IN HOLDING IN THE LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ETA BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THE FWC GUIDANCE
NUMBERS OF HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

ABI 051/075 -0
SJT 052/076 10

PMCCULLOUGH