Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
859 PM CST THU APR 3 1997

BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND. STORMS OUT WEST SEEMED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM WEST OF MIDLAND
AND LUBBOCK... AND LIKELY AIDED BY A JET STREAK NOTED ON SATELLITE
RACING NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THEIR POINT OF GENERATION AND WITH
INSTABILITY DROPPING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AND HAS BETTER
MOISTURE. THUS...THINK THESE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
SURVIVE AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE 21Z RUC INDICATED SOMEWHAT OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO SET UP
OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH A 35 KNOT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...MAY
BE ENOUGH TO HELP PRODUCE A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG ANY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION MAY LEAVE.

IN ADDITION...AS THE POTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US CREEPS
CLOSER OVERNIGHT...12Z MODELS AND LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE.
WITH ALL OF THIS GOING ON...FAVOR LEAVING THE HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS IS TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ALSO APPEARING ON
TRACK...HAVE NO SUGGESTIONS TO MHAKE TO THE CURRENT FORECASTS.

PMCCULLOUGH