Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
159 PM CDT WED OCT 8 1997

VIGOROUS UPPER TROF EJECTED FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
YESTERDAY. IN HINDSIGHT..AVN AGAIN APPEARED TO BETTER HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM. SFC ANALYSIS...KLBB AND KAMA RADARS SHOW THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHEAST NM...INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. WITH STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN/LOW ROLLING PLAINS. ANTICIPATED LOW
LEVEL DRYING WILL MISS THE CWA.

WITH FRONT HANGING TO THE NORTH...SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA TO REMAIN
UNDER MOIST AXIS AND FIRST PERIOD EVENING RAIN THREAT. NEXT RAIN
CHANCE APPEARS THURSDAY EVENING. ETA DEVELOPS NOSE OF 25KT LOW LEVEL
JET OVER THE CWA...LIKELY PROVIDING ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME
MODERATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INSTABILITY AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED. ETA 36-48 HR QPF APPEARS REASONABLE.

WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING...FWC LOW TEMPS CHOSEN
OVER COOLER FAN GUIDANCE. PERSISTENCE/FWC APPEARS BEST FOR HIGHS...
WITH LITTLE OR NO THICKNESS COOLING AND PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUN
EXPECTED AGAIN. PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS FOLLOW...

ABI 066/082 11
SJT 065/086 12
JCT 066/085 23

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TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-
139-140-154-155-168>170-091100-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
228 PM CDT WED OCT 8 1997

...SCATTERED NONSEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE AXIS...MAINLY OVER AREAS EAST OF A SONORA TO EDEN TO
THROCKMORTON LINE THROUGH MID EVENING.  DUE TO WEAK DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR AND DEEP MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
SATSPSSAT.

ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL CEASE AFTER
OCTOBER 25. THIS OUTLOOK WILL RESUME SCHEDULED ISSUANCE ON MARCH 1
1998. HOWEVER... THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

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