Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
156 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 1997

BIT OF A GUESSWORK FORECAST TODAY...AS HAVE ONLY SEEN FULL DATA FROM
ONE OF THE MODELS...AND IT WAS A DRASTIC CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.
SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATING A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS...BACK
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND FINALLY BACK WESTWARD INTO THE BIG BEND
AREA. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE WEAK LIFT...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS ALONG THIS
SHORTWAVE...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AN AREA OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE HAS
SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THAT AREA. AS
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHILE SOME SORT OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAD SAGGED INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NGM BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT...AND WITH IT CHANCE POPS AND HALF INCH TO ONE INCH QPF
NUMBERS. HAVE A FEW DOUBTS ABOUT THIS SCENARIO. THINK THE 00Z
AVIATION DID A SLIGHTLY BETTER JOB WITH THE SHORTWAVE LAST
NIGHT...CORRECTLY SETTING UP THE ORIENTATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS ACTUALLY HAPPENED AND THEN WEAKENING
IT THROUGH TODAY. 12Z AVIATION JUST NOW STARTING TO SHOW UP...AND IT
CONTINUES ITS TREND OF KEEPING ONLY VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE NGM SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONTINUITY... WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE AVIATION FOR GUIDANCE. THUS
EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND WEAKEST CAP COEXIST
WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE.

FOR SUNDAY...JUDGING FROM THE AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE ONLY VERY WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE SAGGED PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP...FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES MUCH SOONER THAN
THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF PUSH THE
MODELS DO INDICATE...FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FRONT NORTH OF THE BIG
COUNTRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THUS...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE IN ORDER. FINALLY...LOW CLOUDS MADE IT NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FULLY EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND SUNDAY
MORNING AS WELL.

ABI 072/092 11
JCT 072/093 22
SJT 070/095 11

PMCCULLOUGH

TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-
139-140-154-155-168>170-101325-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
220 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 1997

...ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THOUGH TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 90S
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE UNSTABLE
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...WITH AREAS SOUTH
OF AN OZONA TO SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS. ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY OF THESE STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AFTER SUNSET...MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS... AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOKS SEE PRODUCTS OKCSPSOKC...
FTWSPSFTW... AND SATSPSSAT.