Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
200 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 1997

BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOP THE UPPER LOW CENTER
APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHERN COKE COUNTY. ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE
SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE DURING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SOUTHERN KIMBLE COUNTY. MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS ANGLING TOWARD THE EASTERN
BIG COUNTRY. FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN COMANCHE AND
EASTLAND COUNTIES DUE TO THE STORMS PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW AND
THE CIRCULATION. A SIMILAR SCENARIO OCCURRED IN MAY OVER SCHLEICHER
COUNTY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT ANOTHER BOUT OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO FOCUS AROUND THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WOULD PLACE SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AT RISK FOR POSSIBLE FLOODS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY EVEN SAN ANGELO SHOULD GET SOME DECENT RAIN.
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPANDED OVER NEARLY ALL AREAS
EXCEPT FOR CROCKETT COUNTY. UPWARD MOTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED TONIGHT OVER MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

MONDAY WE WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AS THE FIRST
LOW EJECTS OUT TO THE NORTH BUT THE ETA FORMS A SECOND SYSTEM OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY MONDAY EVENING. CERTAINLY NOT GOOD NEWS FOR THE
WATERLOGGED AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE GENERALLY NEAR GUIDANCE WITH PRECIPITATION
FORECAST ABOVE GUIDANCE.

ABI 066/081 +5
JCT 066/083 84^
SJT 064/082 95

10

TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-231335-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 1997

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
CONCHO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCING FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN SO FAR THIS WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT YET EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...SOME FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY...THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY AND THE NORTHERN
HEARTLAND. MOST OF THESE FUNNELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH THE
GROUND...HOWEVER OCCASIONALLY ONE OF THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS COULD MAKE
A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN AS A SMALL TORNADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED. FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND NEW
MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS... THE
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOKS SEE PRODUCTS LBBSPSLBB... OKCSPSOKC...
FTWSPSFTW... AND SATSPSSAT.

10