Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
200 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 1997

A WET PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...REMNANTS OF BLANCA...MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER EL PASO AREA AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S.  UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALSO IN PLACE WITH LIFTED INDICES IN THE -10 RANGE AND
CAPES NEAR 3000.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR MIDLAND AND ALSO FURTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS.

NGM SEEMS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON DEEP MOISTURE AND
MOVEMENT OF VORT MAX OVER FAR WEST TEXAS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OUT WEST AS THE VORT MAX
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  WITH THE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND VEERING WINDS SHOWN ON THE LATEST RADAR WIND
PROFILE...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OUT WEST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE VERY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...THETA E RIDGE...K INDICES APPROACHING 40...HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IS HIGH. SOIL ALREADY SATURATED FROM LAST WEEKS HEAVY
RAINFALL.  APPEARS THE BEST AREA FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT
WILL BE OVER WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
SWEETWATER TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH EASTERN
COUNTIES FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THE SECOND PERIOD.  WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OUT WEST WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER FROM
TONIGHTS ACTIVITY.

FOR TEMPS...AGREE WITH WARM GUIDANCE LOWS OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS.  WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WITH THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN AND WET GROUND.

ABI 071/087 44
JCT 073/089 33
SJT 072/088 54

08

TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-151345-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
241 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 1997

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE
FROM ABILENE TO EDEN TO JUNCTION THROUGH TONIGHT...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM ABILENE TO EDEN TO
JUNCTION.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE OF A
THREAT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
BLANCA WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.  ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY
THIS EVENING... ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING ON ATTENDING FIESTA DEL
CONCHO AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED. FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND NEW
MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS... THE
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOKS SEE PRODUCTS LBBSPSLBB... OKCSPSOKC...
FTWSPSFTW... AND SATSPSSAT.
08