Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
245 PM CST FRI APR 11 1997

MODELS TODAY SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF CURRENT SITUATION. HWVR...ALL THREE
MODELS ARE ABOUT 6 HRS TOO SLOW WITH SFC FNT. AT 11/18Z FNT WAS ALONG A
FSM TO TXK TO SHV TO CLL LINE AND MOVG TO THE E AND SE. A LOW HAS DVLPD
IN NW AR/SW MO WHICH WILL SLOW FORWARD PROGRESSION IN THAT AREA BUT
GUD PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FNT ACRS TX SHUD KEEP IT MOVG...IF
JUST A LITTLE SLOWER...ACRS THE CWA. CONVECTION ACRS MOST OF THE
CWA HAS BEEN LIMITED BY MCS THAT DVLPD IN THE NWRN GULF LAST NIGHT.

THRU THE NIGHT MODELS FCST ANOTHER S/WV TO MOV ACRS THE CWA FROM SW TO
NE AS UPR LVL FLOW RMNS WSW. THERE SHUD BE SUFFICIENT MSTR RMNG ACRS
THE AREA TO WARRANT A MENTION OF A CHC FOR SHWRS OR LIGHT RAIN THRU
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. CLDS BEHIND THE FNT EXTEND ALL THE WAY INTO KS AND
NE AND SEE NO REASON TO BLV AIRMASS WILL DRY RAPIDLY ENUF TO FCST
DSCREING CLDS ON SAT. SO FEEL THAT MOSTLY CLDY IS THE WAY TO GO ALL
DAY WITH SOME DECREASE ON CLDS SAT NIGHT. HWVR...CONTD WSW FLOW ALOFT
SHUD KEEP MID/UPR LVL MSTR ACRS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND NOT ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS AVN FCST. AVN HAS BEEN TOO LOW ON TEMPS
ALL THIS PAST WEEK. SO WILL LEAN TOWARD NGM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THIS
FCST PERIOD. WILL ONLY MENTION POPS FIRST PERIOD THEN NONE THE REST
OF THE FCST.

SHV 48/56/39/60 3000  MLU 51/58/40/62 4100

18

ARZ070-071-LAZ001>004-010>012-017-TXZ126-138-150>153-165>167-111800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1221 PM CDT FRI APR 11 1997

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCREASING IN INTENSITY FROM NORTH OF
SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO CARTHAGE TEXAS TO JUST NORTH OF NACOGDOCHES
TEXAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

IF THE THUNDERSTORMS DO BECOME SEVERE...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RESIDENTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA SHOULD STAY
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS CONCERNING THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

3

ARZ070-071-LAZ001>004-010>012-017-TXZ126-138-150>153-165>167-111800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1221 PM CDT FRI APR 11 1997

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCREASING IN INTENSITY FROM NORTH OF
SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO CARTHAGE TEXAS TO JUST NORTH OF NACOGDOCHES
TEXAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

IF THE THUNDERSTORMS DO BECOME SEVERE...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RESIDENTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA SHOULD STAY
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS CONCERNING THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

3

LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-111945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT FRI APR 11 1997

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR MAGNOLIA ARKANSAS TO BOSSIER CITY
LOUISIANA TO LUFKIN TEXAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

IN DEEP EAST TEXAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR MAY
OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF CENTER TO LUFKIN LINE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA THROUGH 400 PM.

3

LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-111945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT FRI APR 11 1997

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR MAGNOLIA ARKANSAS TO BOSSIER CITY
LOUISIANA TO LUFKIN TEXAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

IN DEEP EAST TEXAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR MAY
OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF CENTER TO LUFKIN LINE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA THROUGH 400 PM.

3