Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
220 AM CST SUN MAR 2 1997

AREA OF SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTS ACRS N CNTRL LA AND INTO E TX ALONG AND
JUST N OF SFC CDFNT THAT STRETCHED FROM JUST E OF ELD TO SHV TO JUST
N OF AUS AT 06Z. MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE PLACEMENT AT 06Z.
MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN MOVG UPR LVL TROF AND VORT MAX OVER SERN NM
AT 00Z E INTO CNTRL TX BY MRNG. THEN SLOWLY LIFT VORT MAX ACRS SRN
PORTIONS OF CWA BY LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVNG. AVN IS THE FARTHEST N
WITH THE VORT MAX WHILE NGM AND ETA SOLUTIONS VERY CLOSE AND A LITTLE
FARTHER S.

MODELS ALSO DVLP H850 LOE IN SE TX BY 12Z IN RESPONSE TO UPR LVL TROF
DIGGING ACRS CNTRL TX. THIS SHUD INCREASE WAA AND MSTR ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LVLS KEEPING POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS ACRS MOST OF LA AND
INTO EXTREME SRN AR. WITH SFC BOUNDARY RMNG IN PLACE ACRS NRN LA AND
SE TX THRU LATE AFTN...HEAVIEST RAINS SHUD FOCUS TO THE N AND W OF A
LINE FROM MLU TO LFK. LIT...WILL NEED TO EXTEND FFA INTO THE EVNG HOURS
ACRS PARTS OF SRN AR. NEW ALREADY IN PROCESS OF EXPANDING FFA FOR
NRN LA. JAN...WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND FFA NE LA AS WELL.

AVN SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO MOVEMENT OF VORT MAX SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE AS IT RIDES NE ALONG THE CDFNT. COLD POOL AT H500 IN SE
NM/SW TX AT 00Z SHUD MOV ENE WITH UPR LVL TROF. BLV MODELS ARE
UNDERPLAYING THIS COLD AIR TOO MUCH THOUGH AS FCST TEMPS AT H500
BY THIS EVNG ONLY ARND -18C IN NE TX. THIS COLD POOL AND VORT MAX
SHUD MAINTAIN CHC FOR TSTMS ACRS SERN 2/3 OF CWA TODAY ALTHOUGH
SVR CCS SHUD BE CONFINED TO SERN 1/2 HALF IN WARM SECTOR. N OF CDFNT
ELEVATED TSTMS LIKELY BUT SHUD PROVIDE JUST HEAVY RAINS...NO SIG SVR.

WELL MAYBE JUST HEAVY RAIN IS NOT THE RIGHT WORDING. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MENTION OF SVR FOR MOST OF NRN LA AND LFK AREA OF E TX. WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN E TX AND SW AR
AS WELL.

WILL OPT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER NGM TEMPS TODAY EVEN WITH CLDS. LOW LVL
WAA SHUD KEEP READINGS IN 70S S OF CDFNT AND 60S ALG AND N EXCEPT ACRS
SE OK AND ETREME SW AR WHERE UPR 50S MORE LIKELY. CAA SHUD BGN LATE
TONIGHT BUT CLEARING NOT LIKELY BEFORE ERLY MON AS WRAP ARND MSTR
RMNS ACRS THE AREA. WILL USE MIX OF AVN/NGM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND MON.
POPS HIGHEST IN LA...SRN AR AND SRN PORTONS OF E TX TODAY...DIMINISHING
TOINGHT. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER NGM POPS THRU TONIGHT. NO POPS FOR MON...
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

WIL NEED TO CONTINUE MENTION OF PCPN ON TUE IN EXTENDED AS NEXT S/WV
AND CDFNT MOV QUICKLY ACRS THE AREA.

SHV 66/44/67 940    MLU 75/50/67 95-

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
235 AM CST SUN MAR 02 1997

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0155 AM    BERNICE                   LA   FLOODING
03/02/97   UNION                          WATER OVER US 167.

0215 AM                              AR   FLOODING
03/02/97   UNION                          WATER OVER PARTS OF COUNTY
                                          ROADS.

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
235 AM CST SUN MAR 02 1997

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0155 AM    BERNICE                   LA   FLOODING
03/02/97   UNION                          WATER OVER US 167.

0215 AM                              AR   FLOODING
03/02/97   UNION                          WATER OVER PARTS OF COUNTY
                                          ROADS.

10