Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
915 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

GOING FCSTS APPEAR TO HAVE HANDLE ON DVLPG EVENT AND DONT NEED TO MAKE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES. FOR LIT...DO FEEL THAT WORDING NEEDS TO BE
CLEANED FOR TODAY. WOULD SUGGEST CHANGING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTN INSTEAD OF JUST RAIN. ALSO MAY WANT TO LOOK AT INCLUDING
SEVERE WORDING FOR BORDER COUNTIES. ALSO...EVEN WITH CLDS HIGH TEMPS
LIKELY TO REACH ABV MID 60S THESE AREAS GIVEN INCREASING LOW LVL SRLY
FLOW TODAY. FOR NEW...WILL NEED TO CLEAN UP WORDING AS WELL FOR NW
LA TO DROP LOW POPS THIS MRNG AND GO WITH LIKELY THIS AFTN.

18

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-231600-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO FORM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM ACROSS EAST TEXAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA ANS EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS
OF EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA AS WELL.

BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY AS WELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ACTIVATION OF SEVERE STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA.

18

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-231600-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO FORM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM ACROSS EAST TEXAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA ANS EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS
OF EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA AS WELL.

BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY AS WELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ACTIVATION OF SEVERE STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA.

18

TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-232215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EAST TEXAS UNTIL 800 PM THIS
EVENING...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF INSTABILITY.  AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AND THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TORNADOES...WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE TORNADO WATCH DOES NOT
INCLUDE ANY PORTION OF LOUISIANA.

RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
WEATHER...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS...AND BE READY TO TAKE
QUICK ACTION TO PROTECT THEMSELVES DURING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TIME.