Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
850 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 1997

NWLY FLOW MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOV SE FROM SE OK INTO THE KSHV FA
THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  ALL MODELS SHOW SYSTEM SLOWING
ALTHOUGH DO NOT BELIEVE THE AVN AS IT SHOWS THE SYSTEM STILL OVR SRN
FA DURING SAT MORN.  BELIEVE THAT CURRENT FCTS ARE SATISFACTORY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS E TX...SW AR...AND NW LA WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS
TSTMS.  FURTHER E TOWARDS NE LA AND SE AR APPEARS THAT THE
COMPLEX WILL ONLY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS AT BEST PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS.  ALSO DRIER AIR INDICATED OVR THIS AREA PER THE
12Z KJAN RAOB WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.15 INCHES.  ONLY FCST ITEM
THAT NEEDS TO BE UPDATED ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE TX AND
SE OK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TSTMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS
IS QUITE USUAL FOR NOCTURNAL NW FLOW EVENTS AFTER SUNRISE.  SOME
TSTMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC SELY FLOW VEERING TO NLY
FLOW AT AROUND 400 HPA AHEAD OF THE MCS.  BELIEVE THAT RAINS WILL BE
HEAVY IN SOME AREAS...HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY WEATHER OF THE LAST
SIX WEEKS ACROSS MUCH OF NE TX...AM NOT CONCERNED WITH FLOODING
PROBLEMS.   VIII.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...COR TO LOCATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
815 AM CDT THU AUG 21 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH/COUNTY LOCATION....

1047 PM    HARLETON                  TX   60 MPH TSTM GUST
08/20/97   HARRISON                       DOWNED TREES AND POWER
                                          LINES

ARZ050-051-059-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151-
221515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
921 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 1997

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INVADING NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

AT 920 AM...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTROMS EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH
OF BROKEN BOW OKLAHOMA TO PARIS AND DENTON TEXAS.

MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM NEAR VALLIANT OKLAHOMA TO
JUST NORTHWEST OF PARIS.

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH OF
RAIN PER HOUR ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS...HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXTEND FROM DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO NEAR MT
PLEASANT TEXAS BY 1100 PM.

IV

ARZ050-051-059-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151-
221515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
921 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 1997

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INVADING NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

AT 920 AM...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTROMS EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH
OF BROKEN BOW OKLAHOMA TO PARIS AND DENTON TEXAS.

MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM NEAR VALLIANT OKLAHOMA TO
JUST NORTHWEST OF PARIS.

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH OF
RAIN PER HOUR ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS...HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXTEND FROM DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO NEAR MT
PLEASANT TEXAS BY 1100 AM.

IV

ARZ050-051-059-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151-
221515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
921 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 1997

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INVADING NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

AT 920 AM...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTROMS EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH
OF BROKEN BOW OKLAHOMA TO PARIS AND DENTON TEXAS.

MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM NEAR VALLIANT OKLAHOMA TO
JUST NORTHWEST OF PARIS.

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH OF
RAIN PER HOUR ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS...HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXTEND FROM DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO NEAR MT
PLEASANT TEXAS BY 1100 PM.

IV

ARZ050-051-059-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151-
221515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
921 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 1997

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INVADING NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

AT 920 AM...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTROMS EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH
OF BROKEN BOW OKLAHOMA TO PARIS AND DENTON TEXAS.

MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM NEAR VALLIANT OKLAHOMA TO
JUST NORTHWEST OF PARIS.

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH OF
RAIN PER HOUR ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS...HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXTEND FROM DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO NEAR MT
PLEASANT TEXAS BY 1100 AM.

IV

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-221600-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 1997

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGHOUT TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  THE WIND PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR WIND
SPEEDS...HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHERLY
WINDS AT AND ABOVE 25,000 FEET...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS ARE DOWNBURST WINDS THAT MAY RESULT
IN TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE.  ALSO THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED.  AS A RESULT...HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.

ACTIVATION OF SEVERE STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

VIII.