Severe Thunderstorm Warning 283, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 1997

CONVECTION HAS DVLPD ACRS SE OK AND SW AR AHEAD OF S/WV MOVG ACRS OK/TX
ATTM WHILE CONVECTION ACRS NW LA HAS DVLPD IN RESPONSE TO LOW LVL
MSTR CONVERGENCE...AS SEEN IN ADAP GRAPHICS. ALL THREE MODELS CONT
TREND OF PUSHING S/WV OUT OF OK/TX SLOWLY TO THE E LATE TONIGHT. ALL
THREE MOVE IT SLOW ENUF TO KEEP CHC PCPN ACRS AR AND LA THRU MIDDAY SUN.

SRLY LOW LVL FLOW THRU THE PERIOD SHUD KEEP PLENTY OF MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR AVAILABLE FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU MIDDAY SUN. MODELS ALSO ALL
AGREE IN BRINGING 250 TROF COMPLEETELY THRU THE AREA BY SUN AFTN...
MAKING UPR LVL FLOW MORE NWLY. SHUD BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS TO
LESSEN CHCS FOR PCPN BY LATE SUN AFTN AND INTO SUN NIGHT.

STILL AGREE THAT CHC FOR SVR EXISTS ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NRN SECTIONS INTO THE ERLY EVNG HOURS. WITH MID LVL WINDS INCREASING
AND VEERING WITH APPROACH OF S/WV THIS AFTN AND EVNG MAY BE ENUF
ROTATION TO PRODUCE SIG WINDS AND HAIL ACRS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.

FOR POPS WILL TREND CLOSER TO AVN THIS FCST AS NGM MSTR AND LIFT LOOKS
TO BE UNDERDONE SOMEWHAT. EVEN USING AVN WILL HAVE TO UP POPS FOR THE
EVNG. WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.

SHV 72/92/71/92 5411   MLU 73/92/72/92 6521

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ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-281600-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 1997

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
AND CROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...THE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA MAKING HEAVY RAINS A THREAT
AS WELL.

ACTIVATION OF SEVERE STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

18

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-281600-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 1997

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
AND CROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...THE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA MAKING HEAVY RAINS A THREAT
AS WELL.

ACTIVATION OF SEVERE STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

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