Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 1997

AIRMASS ACRS E TX HAS HAD PLENTY OF TIME TO RECOVER THIS AFTN BEHIND
ACTIVITY THAT MOVED INTO NW LA THIS MRNG. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS AT 18Z
FROM BOTH FWD AND SHV INDICATE VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH CAPES VARYING
FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND LIS TO NEAR -11. OF COURSE...FWD IS ALMOST
BEHIND SFC FNT ATTM BUT AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS PRIMED FOR DVLPMT AS
S/WV SEEN IN SAT IMAGERY ACRS WRN/CNTRL OK MOVS INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTN AND EVNG. WUD EXPECT DVLPMT FIRST ACRS NE TX THEN MOVG EWD ACRS
LA AND AR AS FNT PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVNG.

MODELS ALL PROVIDE SIMILAR TIMING FOR SFC FNT INTO NW PORTIONS OF
CWA BY ERLY EVNG THEN THRU CWA BY MIDNIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ARISE HWVR. NGM LOOKS AS THOUGH IT IS TOO DRY WHILE AVN KEEPS MAIN
DYNAMICS N OF BULK OF THE AREA. THIS WUD ACCOUNT FOR LOWER POPS
GENERATED BY THE MODELS. ETA APPEARS TO BE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT
NORMALLY HANDLES MSTR BETTER THAN NGM. WILL UP POPS FROM GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR THE EVNG ACRS THE AREA. MENTION OF SVR STILL VERY MUCH
NEEDED. LOOKS LIKE SQUALL LINE AND ISOLATED TORNADIC DVLPMT AHEAD OF
THE LINE THIS EVNG. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAST AIRMASS OVER LA WILL
RECOVER TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SVR WX INO NW LA. WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY THIS MRNG BECAME SRLY AGN AND GUD SRLY INFLOW REESTABLISHING
ACRS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL RECOVER ENUF.

FOR LA WILL NEED TO KEEP FFA GOING. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS ACRS THE NRN PARTS OF LA THIS EVNG AND TONIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT AND ERLY SAT DRIER AIR SHUD PUSH INTO THE AREA FOM
THE WEST AT ALL LVLS. SOME CAA NOTED SHUD HELP PUSH WINDS SAT BUT
STRENGTHb OF THE SUN SHUD OVERCOME THE CAA AND TEMPS FROM DROPPING
VERY FAR. WILL GO CLOSER TO WARMER NGM TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN.

SHV 56/75/50/78 5000   MLU 58/74/50/78 6000

18

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE SHREVEPORT LA
635 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH LOCATION....

0330 PM    MINDEN                    LA   FLOODING
05/02/97   WEBSTER                        HIGHWAYS 7 AND 163 AND 164
                                          FLOODED SOUTH OF MINDEN

0405 PM    STERLINGTON               LA   NON QUALIFIED EVENT
05/02/97   UNION                          FUNNEL CLOUD JUST WEST OF
                                          STERLINGTON

0415 PM    HOMER                     LA   60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/02/97   CLAIBORNE                      TREES DOWN AT LAKE
                                          CLAIBORNE

0500 PM    DUBBERLY                  LA   NON QUALIFIED EVENT
05/02/97   WEBSTER                        5.00 INCHES OF RAIN AT
                                          DUBBERLY THROUGH 500 PM
   P                                       CDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH LOCATION....

0525 PM    2 S LUFKIN                TX   .75 INCH HAIL
05/02/97   ANGELINA

0529 PM    LUFKIN                    TX   .88 INCH HAIL
05/02/97   ANGELINA

0533 PM    LUFKIN                    TX   1 INCH HAIL
05/02/97   ANGELINA

0555 PM    PLEASANT HILL             LA   .5 INCH HAIL
05/02/97   SABINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH LOCATION....

0525 PM    2 S LUFKIN                TX   .75 INCH HAIL
05/02/97   ANGELINA

0529 PM    LUFKIN                    TX   .88 INCH HAIL
05/02/97   ANGELINA

0533 PM    LUFKIN                    TX   1 INCH HAIL
05/02/97   ANGELINA

0555 PM    PL\EASANT HILL             LA   .5 INCH HAIL
05/02/97   SABINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE SHREVEPORT LA
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH LOCATION....

0615 PM    POWHATAN                  LA   1 INCH HAIL
05/02/97   NATCHITOCHES

0619 PM    EL DORADO                 AR   .88 INCH HAIL
05/02/97   UNION

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE SHREVEPORT LA
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH LOCATION....
p
0615 PM    POWHATAN                  LA   1 INCH HAIL
05/02/97   NATCHITOCHES

0619 PM    EL DORADO                 AR   .88 INCH HAIL
05/02/97   UNION