Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS San Diego, CA

SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
940 AM PST SAT DEC 6 1997

                          ...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING SUNDAY. A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT IS
OCCURRING OVER ORANGE COUNTY WITH OTHER FLOODING OCCURRING OVER
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. A HEAVY
SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

                         ...DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF OVER 5 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED OVER ORANGE
COUNTY...WITH TOTALS OF MOSTLY 1-2 INCHES IN THE INLAND EMPIRE. FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING...CHECK LAXFFSSAN AND LAXFLSSAN
PRODUCTS.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...MORE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE
COASTS OF SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTIES WITH A SMALL GAP WEST OF
THAT. MORE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE ABOUT 60 MILES OFFSHORE...SO THE
BREAKS IN THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER BRIEF IN MOST AREAS. THE SWODY1
PRODUCT PUTS US IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE TSTORMS...THE
MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF
TORNADOES...THOUGH NEITHER HAVE BEEN REPORTED SO FAR. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY...OF COURSE.

AT MID-MORNING...THE STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SW OF
POINT CONCEPTION. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST...AND THIS SHOULD BRING THE
SYSTEM INTO SAN DIEGO SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. MOST LIKELY...SAN
DIEGO COUNTY WILL PARTICIPATE IN MORE OF THE HEAVY RAIN LATER TODAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH...THE PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. 500MB TEMPS HAVE MOSTLY BOTTOMED OUT...AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATED THAT 500MB TEMPS RAPIDLY REBOUND TO AROUND -15C OR EVEN
WARMER SUNDAY. THUS...SUNDAY SHOULD NOT SEE TOO MUCH TSTORM ACTIVITY.

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AT 840AM...AND FURTHER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING.

SAN RE 065/056 064/054 065 07984

MAXWELL