Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS San Diego, CA

SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT FRI SEP 5 1997

                           ...SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. AT THE COAST A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG WITH SOME COOLING. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

                          ...DISCUSSION...
THE MARINE LAYER HAS STARTED TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THIS MORNING THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SAN DIEGO AND SOUTHERN SANTA ANA COUNTIES HAD SOME
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG ALSO MADE ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEYS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT THE COOLING TREND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IS UPON US. THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

THE 500 MB HEIGHTS DONT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
BUT THE FLOW DOES BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE EAST AND DECREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS.

THE NKX SOUNDING DOES INDICATE LESS MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY AND MORE
STABILITY...BUT STILL SHOWS A LIFTED INDEX OF -1. AFTER MODIFICATION
FOR MIRAMAR THE CAPE BECOMES 1900 J/KG AND FOR THE DESERTS 4000 J/KG.
SO THE CURRENT FORECAST IS GOOD WITH RESPECT TO THE THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST.

SAN UU 080/069 078/068 077 08000

EVANS