Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 1997

WELL...SFC CDFNT CURRENTLY LOCATED FM MCI-CNU AND THIS FNT HAS BECOME
HARDER TO LOCATE OVR LAST 2 HRS DUE TO STRONG MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG FNT
AND PRE FRONTAL TROF.  SELS IS ON THE CORRECT TANGENT WITH MDT AND HI
RISK TO SE.  UNO AREA PRESENT THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SVR TRW...WITH
SCT HAIL (GR) AND HEAVY RAIN FOR SGF GRP.  BELIEVE THAT JLN AREA WL
HAVE NO POPS FOR TNGT AS DEW POINTS WL BECOME TO ARID.

...FCST PROB OF PD...POPS AND TEMPS...

INITIAL PROBLEM IS POSP...BUT AGREE WITH FRED G FM STL ABOUT KEEPING
50-70 POS FOR SGF EWD...AND NOW WE AWAIT UPON SPC TO SEE WHO WL BE
IN WATCH AREA FOR NEXT BOX.  AFTER FROPA PASSAGE NEXT CONCERN IS
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FM LOW BY MCI.  LOTS AND LOTS OF MVFR CIGS OVR NE
AND NW KS.

CLDS WL SET IN FOR MOST OF CWA LATER TNGT AND THEN BREEZY NW WINDS TO
SET IN...ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG AS WRN KS HAS.

1ST PD RECOMMENDATIONS...

SE KS/JLN.....NO POPS. INCR CLDS.   WINDS BECMG NW AT 15-25.
              LOW IN THE MID 40S.
SGF...........THIS EVENING. CLDY WITH 50% CHC OF RW/TRW. OVERNIGHT
              CLDY 40-45. WIND NW 15-25.
AIZ...........CLDY WITH A 40% CHC OF RASH/TRW. LOW 40-45.
              WIND BECMG NW 15-25.
UNO...........PERIODS OF RASH/TRW...SOME WL BE SVR.  LOW 45-50.
              SW WIND 10-20 BECMG NW LATE.

SGF EU 042/056 038/067 046 02510
JLN EU 046/061 041/069 049 02210

G2ORDON/GAEDE

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-031800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 1997

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER)
OF AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 1 PM...A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM KANSAS CITY TO CHANUTE
KANSAS.  THIS FRONT MARKS A STRONG DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN VERY MOIST AIR
FROM VERY DRY AIR.  IN ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTAIN A COLD POCKET OF AIR AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS WILL ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE.   THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF MISSOURI.  THE BEST
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF A SALEM TO GALENA TO
PINEVILLE LINE. PEAK TIME FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 1 PM
THRU 8 PM TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH AND
THEREFORE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER SOME
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
OF OVER 1 INCH IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.  HOWEVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL
HAVE A THREAT INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

GORDON