Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CDT SUN APR 20 1997

ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI HAS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADAP LIFTED INDICIES AT OR BELOW -6.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW NEAR EMPORIA KANSAS WITH WINDSHIFT
LINE JUST EAST OF WICHITA. MODIFIED 12Z SPRINGFIELD SOUNDING FOR 78/55
(19Z JLN METAR) RESULTS IN ZERO CAP AND CAPE AROUND 2500. WAITING FOR
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONCE THEY DEVELOP...WILL PROGRESS EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END IN JOPLIN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. SEVERE THREAT FOCUSING NOW FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER WHERE INSTABILITIES ARE THE
GREATEST. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...SOUTHWEST 850 MB FLOW
INDICATED BY PROFILERS SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING TO EXPECT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY: SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO ERODE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT HAVE A BAD
FEELING THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT WARMUP.

NEXT SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF TWO SHORTWAVES...WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS
MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA EXPECTED...ONE
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SECOND OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. WOULD LIKE TO WORD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

FWC/FAN CLOSE AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

FIRST PERIOD IDEAS:
SGF: SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS UPPER 40S.
JLN: SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS UPPER 40S.
UNO: SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING TOWARD SUNRISE. LOWS NEAR 50.
AIZ: SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNI:GHT. LOWS MIDDLE 40S.

SGF ET 048/060 046/062 042 08824
JLN ET 048/062 050/065 045 08825

MS

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SUN APR 20 1997

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXISTS...

A MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI THIS EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI HAD BECOME UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. IN ADDITION...COLDER AIR IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILITY.

AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...INITIALLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BETWEEN 100 PM AND 300 PM.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE AREA SOUTH OF A FORT SCOTT TO BOLIVAR AND EMINENCE LINE IS THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND PREVENT
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FROM BECOMING SEVERE.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
TODAY...HOWEVER TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY
OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JOPLIN TO SPRINGFIELD AND SALEM LINE WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO THREE INCHES ALSO POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE GROUND
IS RELATIVELY DRY...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SHOULD THE
HEAVY RAIN OCCUR.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MS