Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 PM CDT THU JUL 3 1997

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE

ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE FRONT FROM
PPF TO BETWEEN JLN AND SGF BASED ON DEWPOINT INCREASES OVER PAST 3
HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI COMPLEX FROM JUST NORTH
OF SGF TO BETWEEN UNO AND TBN/VIH...AND THIS MAY BE ANOTHER FAVORED
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNSET. 88D VWP WINDS INCREASING AT 10-12
KFT LEVEL. NO PCPN ON KSGF 88D NOW...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE SOON.

ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT...WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO AS
FOLLOWS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. NGM GETS A SLIGHT EDGE TODAY AS IT PRODUCES A MORE
PLAUSIBLE PRECIPITATION FIELD TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HIGHEST
THIS EVENING...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. WOULD LIKE TO KEEP HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ZONES TONIGHT.

A COOL BUT DRY HOLIDAY WILL THEN FOLLOW WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING THE
MAIN CONCERN. SGF AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION MAY NOT REACH 80
TOMORROW...WHILE JLN/UNO AREAS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S. WENT A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND COOL AIRMASS. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHEN COLD FRONT MOVES NORTH AGAIN.

SGF BU 063/078 053/085 060 0862-
JLN BU 063/082 054/087 063 0861-

MS

MOZ082-088-090>098-101>106-040725-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
921 PM CDT THU JUL 3 1997

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI UNTIL
2AM...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAS EXPIRED...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND IS
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI-ARKANSAS BORDER.  THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAIN IN AFFECT UNTIL 2AM FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE STABLE
AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER...PERSONS
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS CAN STILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WIND...AND SMALL HAIL.

SO>ME CITIES IN THE WATCH AREA OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI ARE
JOPLIN...SPRINGFIELD...HOUSTON...AND EMINENCE.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER WEATHER UPDATED OR WARNINGS.

SHUMWAY