Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 PM CDT THU JUL 3 1997

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE

ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE FRONT FROM
PPF TO BETWEEN JLN AND SGF BASED ON DEWPOINT INCREASES OVER PAST 3
HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI COMPLEX FROM JUST NORTH
OF SGF TO BETWEEN UNO AND TBN/VIH...AND THIS MAY BE ANOTHER FAVORED
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNSET. 88D VWP WINDS INCREASING AT 10-12
KFT LEVEL. NO PCPN ON KSGF 88D NOW...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE SOON.

ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT...WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO AS
FOLLOWS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. NGM GETS A SLIGHT EDGE TODAY AS IT PRODUCES A MORE
PLAUSIBLE PRECIPITATION FIELD TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HIGHEST
THIS EVENING...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. WOULD LIKE TO KEEP HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ZONES TONIGHT.

A COOL BUT DRY HOLIDAY WILL THEN FOLLOW WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING THE
MAIN CONCERN. SGF AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION MAY NOT REACH 80
TOMORROW...WHILE JLN/UNO AREAS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S. WENT A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND COOL AIRMASS. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHEN COLD FRONT MOVES NORTH AGAIN.

SGF BU 063/078 053/085 060 0862-
JLN BU 063/082 054/087 063 0861-

MS

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT THU JUL 3 1997

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WEDNESDAY BECAME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS
BORDER LAST NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATED DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH.

A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE
THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS SURFACE HEATING COMBINES WITH THE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ISOLATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. AT FIRST...DAMAGING WIND MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS IN THIS COMPLEX...BUT THE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL BY MIDNIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE COMPLEX...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS TO DEVELOP.

THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO LAMAR...BOLIVAR...
AND SALEM LINE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
AFTER SUNSET IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

MS

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-032140-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT THU JUL 3 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 9 PM THAT INCLUDES BOURBON...CRAWFORD AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WAS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MISSOURI AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.  HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE STORMS MAY ALSO LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RESIDENTS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE APPROACH
OF STORMS.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR THIS CHANNEL
FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RUNNELS

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-032140-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT THU JUL 3 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 9 PM THAT INCLUDES BOURBON...CRAWFORD AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WAS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MISSOURI AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.  HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE STORMS MAY ALS&O LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RESIDENTS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE APPROACH
OF STORMS.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR THIS CHANNEL
FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RUNNELS