Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 1997

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THE CONCERN TODAY

AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON...COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AREA CONTAINED THE STRONGEST STORMS
...WITH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. SCATTERED STORMS
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...BUT LITTLE ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEPICTED ON SURFACE CHARTS...
SATELLITE AND RADAR. CLOUD SHIELD FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT JLN...SGF...AND AIZ...BUT AREAS NORTH AND
EAST HAD RISEN IN THE 80S.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING HARD TO PIN DOWN: TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITIES SOMEWHAT...BUT PLENTY OF JUICE LEFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AND WITH MORE BOUNDARIES THAN YOU CAN COUNT...SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

MODELS HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE OKLAHOMA WAVE...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS:
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO NEAR FYV BY 12Z SUN. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT ANOTHER COMPLEX OR MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SPREAD EAST. HEAVY RAIN THREAT HIGH AGAIN TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST NOT AS CLEAR: OKLAHOMA WAVE ELONGATES AND BECOMES
ILL-DEFINED AFTER 24 HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ETA MODEL OVERDEVELOPS A
WAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY...BUT CHANCE POPS STILL NEEDED.

FIRST PERIOD THOUGHTS:
SGF/JLN/UNO: SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY(60%). HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. LOW 65 TO 70.
AIZ: 50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOW 65 TO 70.

SGF CE 068/084 068/087 069 08643
JLN CE 069/086 072/089 072 08643

MS

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 1997

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS A RESULT.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF JOPLIN
TO SPRINGFIELD AND EMINENCE LINE.  NORTH OF THIS LINE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE
...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY...HOWEVER...WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN.

AS THE DISTURBANCE IN OKLAHOMA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...HEAVY
RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP A
CAREFUL EYE ON THE WEATHER: BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD
HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECT YOUR AREA...ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE CAMPING OR
CANOEING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

MS