Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 1997

MAIN FCST PROB WILL BE WITH POPS DURING PD WITH SVR WX THREAT ON SUN.

ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AS
DWPNTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AND TEMPS INTO THE UPR 70S
AND LOW 80S.  ADAP SHOWING -4 TO -6 LI'S ACROSS MAJORITY OF CWA...WITH
MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS CAPES OF 3000-3400 J/KG.

RADAR LOOP SHOWING AN ENDING TO SHRA/TSRA ACROSS S CNTRL MO AS IT
SCOOTS E OF CWA.  SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH ONE ACROSS CNTRL AND N CNTRL MO ANOTHER ACROSS SE MO AND A DRYLINE
ACROSS W KS.  WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WAS HELPING TO CAP ANY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS W AND CNTRL KS ATTM AND WITH MAJOR FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WELL TO THE N WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME ISOLTED TRW THIS EVE ACROSS CWA.
WILL GO WITH 20 POPS THIS EVE FOR THIS REASON.

MCS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE N PLAINS TONIGHT AND SLIDE SE TO AFFECT NE
1/2 OF MO OVERNIGHT TOWARDS MORNING.  THIS COULD HELP TO MODIFY
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS N PTN OF CWA.  WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS CNTRL MO OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE AN INTERESTING WX DAY WITH DAY 2 OUTLOOK INCLUDING
MAJORITY OF CWA IN MDT RISK AREA.  MOST OF TSRA ACROSS THIS AREA WILL
BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF CDFNT AS UPR LVL FEATURES WILL REMAIN N OF AREA.
INSTABILITIES WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON SUN WITH FCST CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG
AGAIN.  SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INDICATED BY FCST SOUNDINGS BUT MAIN
SHEAR WILL BE TO THE N.

FAN/FWC TEMP GUID LOOK SIMILAR AGAIN AND WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THESE NUMBERS.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TONIGHT...
ALL ZONES...P CLDY AND MILD.  20% EVE TSRA.
SGF...LOW NEAR 60.  S10.
JL,N...LOW IN THE MID 60S.  S10-15.
UNO...LOW NEAR 60.  S10.
VIH/AIZ...40% TSRA OVERNIGHT.  LOW 55-60.  S10.

CCF...
SGF EC 061/081 058/067 048 05246
JLN EB 066/085 060/069 051 05246

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-MOZ055-056-066>069-077>079-089-180620-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
714 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 290 IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI TIL SUNDAY 1 AM CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES VERNON...ST. CLAIR...BENTON
AND CEDAR COUNTIES.  SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH ARE
NEVADA...STOCKTON...WARSAW...AND OSCEOLA.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WARM AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL COMBINE WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO BRING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

SCHMIDT

KSZ073-097-MOZ055-056-066>069-077>079-089-180620-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
714 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 290 IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI TIL SUNDAY 1 AM CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES VERNON...ST. CLAIR...BENTON
AND CEDAR COUNTIES.  SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH ARE
NEVADA...STOCKTON...WARSAW...AND OSCEOLA.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

WARM AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL COMBINE WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO BRING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION ^FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

SCHMIDT

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094-098-180853-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1005 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 293 IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL 4 AM...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES AN AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM COLUMBUS KANSAS...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO EMINENCE. THIS WATCH
REPLACES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290.

THE WATCH INCLUDES  THE CITIES AND TOWNS OF
SPRINGFIELD...JOPLIN...ROLLA...FT SCOTT...AND FORT LEONARD WOOD.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO
EASTERN KANSAS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO CABLE OR LOCAL TELEVISION OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

ALBERT

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094-098-180853-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1005 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 293 IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL 4 AM...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES AN AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM COLUMBUS KANSAS...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO EMINENCE. THIS WATCH
REPLACES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290.

THE WATCH INCLUDES  THE CITIES AND TOWNS OF
SPRINGFIELD...JOPLIN...ROLLA...FT SCOTT...AND FORT LEONARD WOOD.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO
EASTERN KANSAS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO CABLE OR LOCAL TELEVISION OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

ALBERT