Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
203 PM CDT WED JUL 16 1997

FCST PROBLEMS...POPS

VSBL SATELLITE STARTING TO SHOW CU FORMING OVR NRN ARK AND SPREADING
NORTH INTO SRN MO.  KSGF 88D EVEN SHOWING AN ISOLATED SHRA SOUTH OF
MONETT.  ADAP SHOWS MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG ARK/MO BORDER AND SOUTH
WHERE DEW PTS ARE IN THE MID 70S.  DEW PTS ACTUALLY FELL AT SGF AS ARE
UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE. MAIN VORT MAX AND ASSOC STORMS REMAINING OVR
SCNTRL KS...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING OVER
THE FLINT HILLS.

FOR THIS EVENING...THINK ISOLD SHRA/TSRA PSBL IN FAR SW MO AND SE KS...
MAINLY SOUTH OF A PITTSBURG-JOPLIN-MONETT-BRANSON LINE. O/W FROM SGF
NORTH AND EAST SUBSIDENCE PATTERN SHOULD HOLD AND CHC FOR ANY PCPN ARE
MUCH LESS AND WILL LEAVE POPS OUT UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES BEFORE ZFP
ISSUANCE.

FOR THE LATER PERIODS...PREFER THE ETA/AVN AT 50H AS IT KEEPS VORT MAX
SLOWLY ROTATING SSE INTO OKLA. WITH 70H TEMPS REMAINING NR 10C...THIS
WILL MEAN KEEPING 30 POPS FOR FAR SW MO (BRANSON TO JLN AREAS)
AND IN FAR SE KS. FOR SGF AREA AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH...WHILE CANNOT
RULE OUT A LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA THINK CHANCES ARE AOB 20 PCT AND PER ZFP
GUIDELINES WILL NOT MENTION. NO GRIDS AVBL...BUT THETA-E VALUES FROM
GARP INDICATES HIGHEST VALUES REMAIN IN A RIBBON FROM SRN KS TO OKLA
AND INTO NRN ARK AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

PERSISTENCE BEST WAY TO GO ON TEMPS AS SEE NO MAJOR CHANGE IN 85H
TEMPS.

MY THOUGHTS FOR TONIGHT....
SE KS/JLN TO BRANSON AREAS...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING...THEN BECMG
   MOSTLY CLR.  LOW LOWER 70S.
SGF/UNO/AIZ/VIH...MOSTLY CLR.  LOW AR 70.

CCF
SGF BB 070/091 070/091 070 06222
JLN BB 072/093 072/093 072 06333

RIDDLE

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT WED JUL 16 1997

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR
.

...ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND THURSDAY...

HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.   MEANWHILE..A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE LITTLE THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTERACTS WITH SOME UPLIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERTORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WEST OF A
NEVADA TO MONETT TO BRANSON LINE.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE BETWEEN THE 3 AND 7 PM.  IF ANY STORM DOES FORM...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...FROM SPRINGFIELD NORTH AND EAST...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

RIDDLE