Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  ...CORRECTION FOR TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 1997

FCST PROBLEMS...TSTM CHANCES AND RAINFALL NEXT 48HRS.

TRUE SUMMERTIME LAZY WEATHER PATTERN WITH FORECAST PROBLEMS DEALING WITH
SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES AND VORT MAXES.  ONE MCV THAT FORMED YESTERDAY
IN SCNTRL KS MOVIG SLOWLY EAST INTO SE KS ATTM WITH ITS SMALL BUT PERSISTENT
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA NR THE KS/MO BORDER.  ANOTHER NEW SHOWER POPPED UP SW OF
KAIZ AS WELL.  ADAP AND 00Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWS ATMOSPHERE RATHER UNSTABLE
AND JUICY WITH LI OF -3 AND PWAT OF 1.69 INCHES.

FCST THIS PROBLEM RATHER STRAIGHT FORWARD AS VORT MAX SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THRU CWA.  MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND HARD TO PICK ONE OVER THE
OTHER.  AS THIS VORT MAX MOVES THRU TODAY....EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE ACROSS CWA.  WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF
SYSTEM AND HIGH PWAT VALUES...CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ESP THIS AFTN/EVE WHEN COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY INCREASE.  SINCE HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY STORM TO BE LOCALIZED AND HARD TO TELL WHERE...SITUATION
BETTER HANDLED BY INDIVIDUAL FFW IF NEEDS BE.   WEAK DYNAMICS TO LIMIT
SVR POTENTIAL AGAIN TODAY...OUTSIDE OF LOCAL WIND GUSTS ALONG OUTFLOW.
94Q LOOKS REASONABLE WITH MAIN EMPAHSIS BOUNDED BY A AIZ/SGF/UNO LINE
FOR HVY PCPN...ESP THIS AFTN/EVE.

VORT MAX TO HANG MOVE INTO SE MO ON SATURDAY....AND THIS SHOULD SHIFT
MAIN CHC OF RAIN INTO THE UNO/CGI AREAS.

WITH ADDITIONAL CLDS AND PCPN CHANCES...MOS NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED FROM
PREV RUNS AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

MY THOUGHTS FOR TODAY FOR CWA...
WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR ATTM....LIKE TO INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS.
HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY LOWER-MID 80tS.  VRBL WIND 5-10.

CCF
SGF TB 083/065 085/065 087 06554
JLN TB 084/068 087/070 089 06543

/RIDDLE

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 1997

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL MOVE
SLOWLY INTO EASTERN MISSOURI BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON....MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM TUSCUMBIA TO LEBANON TO SPRINGFIELD TO NEOSHO. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SATURDAY AND COMBINE
WITH THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS.

ALTHOUGH WEAK DYNAMICS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE POSSIBLE IN AN HOUR. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

IF TRAVELLING...BOATING...OR CAMPING TONIGHT...BE AWARE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS WILL RISE RAPIDLY...SOMETIMES WITH LITTLE NOTICE. USE CAUTION
IN LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS TODAY AND SATURDAY.

ALBERT