Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 AM CDT MON MAY 19 1997

1ST PD  FCST CONCERNS...ENDING OF PCPN AND TEMPS.

06Z SFC MAP HAS CDFNT S OF MKC TO ARND ICT.  ATTM CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY SAGS TO THE S.  UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS NOT TO GREAT BUT A DECENT 8H JET OF 30-40KTS.
ATMOSPHERE STILL VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. CDFNT WL
GO THRU SGF ARND 11-12Z.  MODELS SHOWS THAT PCPN WL BE BEHIND
FNT...WITH GD CONVERGENCE IN ERN ZONES TIL AFTN.

AS FOR TEMPS FAN LOOKS WAY TO COOL FOR MID MAY...WL GO WITH FWC.
OVR ALL MODELS IN FAIRLY GD AGREEMENT WITH FNTAL PASSAGE AND WITH
RIDGE REPLACING TROF THAT IS NOW OVR THE CNTRL PART OF THE COUNTRY.

1ST PD RECOMENDATIONS...

WL KEEP TSRA/SHRA IN ALL CWA FOR 1ST PD...ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MORNING.  EXTREME SERN/ERN ZONES WL KEEP IN ALL PD OR MAYBE ENDING
BY LATE AFTN IN UNO.

SE KS/JNL...TEMPS IN 70S WL FALL INTO UPPER 60S BY LATE MORNING.
            LIKELY POPS (TSRA/SHRA)...MAINLY MORNING.  WNDS SHIFTING
            TO NW AT 10 TO 15 BY LATE MORNING AND TURNING COOLER.

SGF.........SAME AS FOR JLN.

AIZ.........LIKELY CHC OF TSRA/SHRA ENDING EARLY MORNING WITH WND
            SHIFTING TO NW 10 TO 20 MPH. COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPS
            60 TO 65.

UNO.........LIKELY POPS OF TSRA/SHRA.  HIGHS 70 TO 75. WNDS SW 10 TO 15
            SHIFTING TO NW  AND TURNING COOLER LATE.

SGF WU 070/045 069/049 071 07620
JLN WU 073/047 071/051 074 07610

SS

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-191800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
920 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 1997

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR
.
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 298 IN EFFECT FOR BOURBON COUNTY
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR CHICAGO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
WAS WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AT 20 MPH
TONIGHT WHILE THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH.  LOOK FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM NEAR FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO WARSAW BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 2 AM AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION SUGGEST THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISOURI AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.  THUS THE BEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AREA.  FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LARGE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION OVERNIGHT.  LOCALLY A2N ADDITIONAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRUMAN DAM AREA
OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD STILL BE ALERT FOR ACTIVATION OVERNIGHT.

RIDDLE

MOZ055>058-067>071-191545-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1053 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 302 IN EFFECT FOR MORGAN
COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 5 AM...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 5 AM CDT.  THE WATCH AREA EXTENDS FROM
VERSAILLES NORTHEAST THROUGH COLUMBIA TO HANNIBAL.

IN THE SPRINGFIELD WARNING AREA...ONLY MORGAN COUNTY IS OFFICIALLY
INCLUDED. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE CITY OF VERSAILLES.  HOWEVER REMEMBER
A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA.  THUS PERSONS LIVING IN THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES OF
BENTON...CAMDEN...AND MILLER SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE ALERT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT IN AND CLOSE TO THE
WATCH AREA WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

PERSONS ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RIDDLE

MOZ055>058-067>071-191545-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1053 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 302 IN EFFECT FOR MORGAN
COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 5 AM...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 5 AM CDT.  THE WATCH AREA EXTENDS FROM
VERSAILLES NORTHEAST THROUGH COLUMBIA TO HANNIBAL.

IN THE SPRINGFIELD WARNING AREA...ONLY MORGAN COUNTY IS OFFICIALLY
INCLUDED. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE CITY OF VERSAILLES.  HOWEVER REMEMBER
A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA.  THUS PERSONS LIVING IN THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES OF
BENTON...CAMDEN...AND MILLER SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE ALERT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO AC:COMPANY THE FRONT...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT IN AND CLOSE TO THE
WATCH AREA WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

PERSONS ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RIDDLE

KSZ073-191108-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT MON MAY 19 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 298 NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAS EXPIRED AND WAS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS LESSENED.

RIDDLE

MOZ055>058-067>071-191522-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 AM CDT MON MAY 19 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 302 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MORGAN COUNTY OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE
MAIN THREAT SHIFTING TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

RIDDLE

MOZ055>058-067>071-191522-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 AM CDT MON MAY 19 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 302 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MORGAN COUNTY OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE
MAIN THREAT SHIFTING TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

RIDDLE