Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
150 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 1997

THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT IS DETERMINING IF DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN KANSAS PRODUCED ENOUGH OUTFLOW THAT
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WAS SUBSTANTIALLY
MODIFIED.   THE COOL...MOIST AIR HAS SLOWED AND LIMITED HEATING
ON THE PLAINS TODAY.  MEANWHILE...THE MODELS INDICATE A TREND
TOWARD WARMING MID LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.   THUS...THE RACE IS ON BETWEEN
DAYTIME HEATING ACTING ON HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND STABILIZING DUE TO MID LEVEL WARMING.  THE ETA
SHOWS 1000+ J/KG CAPE AND RELATIVELY LOW CIN...BUT DOES NOT
GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY SHALLOW
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE THAT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...THAT DEEP CONVECTION
WILL NOT DEVELOP.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT (AROUND 30-
40 KTS THRU THE LOWEST 4 KM) TO ORGANIZE THE STORMS SOMEWHAT...
AND DRYING MID LEVELS WILL HELP ALLOW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.  WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD MOSTLY INHIBIT HAIL PRODUCTION.

COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
LIMITED...SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO
HELP TRIGGER AND SUSTAIN CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...A DRYLINE IS IN
PLACE EXTENDING THROUGH HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES... WHICH
MAY HELP TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...STORMS SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

FWC TEMPERATURES AND POPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK.

HAYNES

COZ060>081-300600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA      BACA        BENT          CHAFFEE        CONEJOS
COSTILLA     CROWLEY     CUSTER        EL PASO        FREMONT
HUERFANO     KIOWA       LAS ANIMAS    MINERAL        OTERO
PROWERS      PUEBLO      RIO GRANDE    SAGUACHE       TELLER

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT PUSHED INTO EASTERN COLORADO...CAUSING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
TO BE COOLER AND MOISTER THAN EXPECTED...EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ACT
TO PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT
AND BACA COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY...MAINLY OVER KIOWA...
PROWERS...BENT AND BACA COUNTIES.

HAYNES

COZ060>081-300600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA      BACA        BENT          CHAFFEE        CONEJOS
COSTILLA     CROWLEY     CUSTER        EL PASO        FREMONT
HUERFANO     KIOWA       LAS ANIMAS    MINERAL        OTERO
PROWERS      PUEBLO      RIO GRANDE    SAGUACHE       TELLER

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT PUSHED INTO EASTERN COLORADO...CAUSING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
TO BE COOLER AND MOISTER THAN EXPECTED...EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ACT
TO PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT
AND BACA COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESXSARY TODAY...MAINLY OVER KIOWA...
PROWERS...BENT AND BACA COUNTIES.

HAYNES