Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
200 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 1997

...MAIN FORCAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS CONTINUATION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT...

ETA AND NGM BOTH SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.  ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING OF
THE NORTHERLY SURGE WHICH HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO A
LITTLE AHEAD OF SECHEDULE.  AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...AND FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT AS EVENING PROGRESSES.  STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MID EVENING FOR COLORADO SPRINGS AREA...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

LOOKED AT A FEW HODOGRAPHS FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS...IF SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT AS MODELS DEPICT...COULD GET SOME
FAVORABLE HELICITIES FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.  FEEL THAT
CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER
COUNTIES WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA IN KIOWA COUNTY. ALL OF THIS
HINGES ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...
AS SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DRAWS WINDS MORE EASTERLY.  FEEL
THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT AS WINDS IN COS AND PUB HAVE ALREADY
RESPONDED.

SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP TNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS A RESULT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FWC FOR MINS DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND MORE CLOUDS.

KT/PE

COZ060>081-250600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1155 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA      BACA        BENT          CHAFFEE        CONEJOS
COSTILLA     CROWLEY     CUSTER        EL PASO        FREMONT
HUERFANO     KIOWA       LAS ANIMAS    MINERAL        OTERO
PROWERS      PUEBLO      RIO GRANDE    SAGUACHE       TELLER

...MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER MUCH OF
   THE EASTERN PLAINS...

SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO...AND WIND SHEAR
PROFILES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER LIES ALONG AND EAST OF AN
AXIS FROM THE COLORADO SPRINGS/PALMER DIVIDE AREA EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO BACA COUNTY.

SOME OF THE CITIES PRONE TO SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INCLUDE...
COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...EADS...LA JUNTA...LAS ANIMAS...LAMAR
...KIM AND SPRINGFIELD.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH IN THE COLORADO
SPRINGS AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY.

COZ060>081-250600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1155 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA      BACA        BENT          CHAFFEE        CONEJOS
COSTILLA     CROWLEY     CUSTER        EL PASO        FREMONT
HUERFANO     KIOWA       LAS ANIMAS    MINERAL        OTERO
PROWERS      PUEBLO      RIO GRANDE    SAGUACHE       TELLER

...MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER MUCH OF
   THE EASTERN PLAINS...

SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO...AND WIND SHEAR
PROFILES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER LIES ALONG AND EAST OF AN
AXIS FROM THE COLORADO SPRINGS/PALMER DIVIDE AREA EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO BACA COUNTY.

SOME OF THE CITIES PRONE TO SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INCLUDE...
COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...EADS...LA JUNTA...LAS ANIMAS...LAMAR
...KIM AND SPRINGFIELD.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH IN THE COLORADO
SPRINGS AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY.

COZ077-242135-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
132 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 1997

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...

THROUGH AT LEAST 230 PM...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.  ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
AFFECT NORTHEAST LAS ANIMAS COUNTY ACROSS OPEN COUNTRY NORTH OF KIM
...WHILE THE OTHER STORM WILL AFFECT OPEN COUNTRY SOUTH OF KIM.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
1 INCH PER HOUR...HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AT 130 PM...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ONE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 20 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KIM AND ANOTHER STORM 14 MILES SOUTH OF KIM.  LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WAS INDICATED.

SR

COZ077-081-242215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
211 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 1997

...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHEAST LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...

A VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST 230 PM AND MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
BACA COUNTY BY 230 PM.  THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WIND GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH...HAIL...AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AT 208 PM...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE STORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KIM
...OR 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD.  MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST
AT 10 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND BRING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM...YOU ARE URGED TO FIND SHELTER BEFORE IT REACHES
YOUR AREA.

SR/PE

COZ077-242230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
228 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 1997

...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND
WESTERN BACA COUNTIES...

THROUGH 330 PM...ISOLATED VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FAR
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND WESTERN BACA COUNTY.  ONE STORM WILL
MOVE ALONG HIGHWAY 160 BETWEEN KIM AND PRITCHETT WHILE THE OTHER
STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST BACA COUNTY TO THE WEST OF CAMPO.

EACH OF THESE VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
...HAIL AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AT 225 PM...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ONE STORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIM
...WHILE THE OTHER STORM WAS 34 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD.
MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WAS EAST AT 10 MPH.

LIGHTNING KILLS MORE PEOPLE IN THE UNITED STATES EACH YEAR THAN ANY
OTHER SINGLE WEATHER PHENOMENON.  MOVE INDOORS IF A THUNDERSTORM IS
NEARBY.

SR

COZ067-071-072-242300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
255 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 1997

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER TELLER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME VERY STRONG...WILL CONTINUE OVER
TELLER COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST 400 PM.  A VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TELLER COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM AND
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST EL PASO COUNTY OR SOUTHERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY BY 330 PM.

THIS VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN UP TO 1 INCH
PER HOUR...WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...HAIL AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

AT 251 PM...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE STORM 9 MILES NORTH OF WOODLAND
PARK...OR 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS.  MOVEMENT WAS EAST
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LIGHTNING KILLS MORE PEOPLE IN THE UNITED STATES EACH YEAR THAN ANY
OTHER SINGLE WEATHER PHENOMENON.

SR