Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
230 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 1997

MULTITUDE OF FORECAST PROBLEMS TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF IT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE TROUGH.

AN AREA OF CSI INDUCED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...AND THIS AREA HAS WEAKENED AND
SHIFTED EAST.  THIS AREA MAY HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR OF THE APPROACHING JET...MOVING OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS.  THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT CSI MAY TAKE OFF
WHEN IT MOVES INTO MOISTER AIR FARTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS.

THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
FOR ISALLOBARIC WINDS ON PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO IS INTENSIFYING WINDS ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
...WITH SOME AREAS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA.  THIS LOW SHOULD
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING A
REDUCTION IN THE WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS.  CONCERNING SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON THE PLAINS...IT WILL TAKE SOME SORT OF TRIGGER TO
RELEASE THE INSTABILITY AND ITS HARD TO FIND ANYTHING AT THE
MOMENT.  STILL...IF THE STORMS DO GO...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...NOT TO MENTION THE HELICITY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE
SUPERCELLS.

IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW SHOULD START IN THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND THEN THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY LATE TONIGHT.  THE SNOW MODEL
DOES NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING PAST ADVISORY CRITERIA.  THE PIKES PEAK
REGION AND WET MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE SECOND
PERIOD FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

FWC GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT LOOKS GENERALLY REASONABLE.  POPS SEEM A
LITTLE HIGH AT COS AND PUB...WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.  ALSO...THE MIN AT COS LOOKS TOO LOW GIVEN THAT
THE FRONT SHOULDN'T COME THROUGH UNTIL AFTER THE FIRST PERIOD.

HAYNES

COZ060>081-120600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1225 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA      BACA        BENT          CHAFFEE        CONEJOS
COSTILLA     CROWLEY     CUSTER        EL PASO        FREMONT
HUERFANO     KIOWA       LAS ANIMAS    MINERAL        OTERO
PROWERS      PUEBLO      RIO GRANDE    SAGUACHE       TELLER

...HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR EL PASO COUNTY AND ALSO
   FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS AND HUERFANO
   COUNTIES...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...

...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS TONIGHT...

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT HAPPENINGS IN SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEATHER TODAY INCLUDING STRONG WINDS...POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
...AND THE APPROACH OF A WINTER-LIKE STORM.

WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM WILL BLOW FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY.
SOME AREAS WILL EVEN SEE GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.  STRONG
WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
COLORADO SPRINGS...WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD AREAS.  DRIVERS
OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES OR VEHICLES PULLING TRAILERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF
PUEBLO THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP
...ESPECIALLY IN KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...CROWLEY...OTERO AND
BACA COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...AN APPROACHING WINTER-LIKE STORM WILL MOVE EAST OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO.  THIS STORM WILL BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON TO THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

INITIALLY...THE INCOMING STORM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.  THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT...AND SEVERAL INCHES WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

OVER THE PLAINS...RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SINCE ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF
PUEBLO...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

HAYNES

COZ060>081-120600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1225 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA      BACA        BENT          CHAFFEE        CONEJOS
COSTILLA     CROWLEY     CUSTER        EL PASO        FREMONT
HUERFANO     KIOWA       LAS ANIMAS    MINERAL        OTERO
PROWERS      PUEBLO      RIO GRANDE    SAGUACHE       TELLER

...HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR EL PASO COUNTY AND ALSO
   FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS AND HUERFANO
   COUNTIES...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...

...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS TONIGHT...

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT HAPPENINGS IN SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEATHER TODAY INCLUDING STRONG WINDS...POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
...AND THE APPROACH OF A WINTER-LIKE STORM.

WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM WILL BLOW FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY.
SOME AREAS WILL EVEN SEE GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.  STRONG
WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
COLORADO SPRINGS...WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD AREAS.  DRIVERS
OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES OR VEHICLES PULLING TRAILERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF
PUEBLO THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP
...ESPECIALLY IN KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...CROWLEY...OTERO AND
BACA COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...AN APPROACHING WINTER-LIKE STORM WILL MOVE EAST OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO.  THIS STORM WILL BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON TO THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

INITIALLY...THE INCOMING STORM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.  THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT...AND SEVERAL INCHES WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

OVER THE PLAINS...RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SINCE ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF
PUEBLO...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

HAYNES