Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Pocatello, ID

EASTERN IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
215 PM MDT WED SEP 10 1997

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
PERSISTING EASTERN IDAHO...BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH LONGER.  THE
DISTURBANCE THAT TOUCHED OFF THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAS NOW MOVED
INTO MT AND A CLEARING TREND IS EVIDENT FROM THE MAGIC VALLEY WEST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEATING AND COUPLED WITH A SURGING THETA-E RIDGE TO
FIRE OFF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY EVENING.  THE PACIFIC COAST
TROF IS ON THE MOVE COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE CA/OR BORDER AND
PROJECTED ON A TRACK THROUGH NV AND ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO IN 36 HOURS.
THE LOW WILL FILL AND WEAKEN BUT TO WHAT DEGREE VARIES BY MODEL WITH
THE ETA PROVIDING THE WEAKEST SOLUTION.  WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THUR
WILL BE UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT IS PUSHED AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW AND
PROPAGATES ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO MID DAY.  EXPECT A FAVORABLE REGIME
FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND CAA ALOFT.  COOL AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THUR NIGHT WITH CLEARING
BENEATH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THE AMOUNT OF WIND GENERATED BY THE
THERMAL GRADIENT MAKES THE LOW TEMP FCST PROBLEMATIC.  FRI SHOULD
START OUT SUNNY ALTHOUGH COOL AIR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP.  FRI NIGHT COULD SEE THE FIRST LOW TEMPS BELOW 4O DEGREES IN
THE PLAINS.  TSC
.WSR88D KSFX...VCP21 OPERATIONAL.

IDA TB 052/074 044/072 040 07254
PIH TB 055/076 048/074 044 07254