Tornado Warning 16, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 1997

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS OBVIOUS...HEAVY RAIN AND FFA.

AS OF 1805 UTC...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WITH VERIFIED WARNINGS IN SOME AREAS. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SOME BACK
BUILDING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT STORMS HAVE
TROUBLE HOLDING TOGETHER.

IR SATELLITE LOOPS PUT MOST OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG GULF COAST WITH COLDER
TOPS. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS.

BOTH ETA AND NGM AGREE ON MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER FA...WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION AND TIMING. CONTINUE TO LIKE THE ETA SOLUTION
DUE TO IT/S SLOWER MOVMENT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BRING HIGHEST UVV/S
OVER AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 06 UTC AS SURFACE LOW NEAR TEXARKANA MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO FA.
.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 304K SURFACE SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. GOOD THETA E
ADVECTION OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AS WELL.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FA. VISIBLE LOOP INDICATING LOTS OF CU DEVELOPING
IN DRY SLOT AREA OVER ARKANSAS.

AFTER COORDINATIONW WITH SDF...WILL LIKELY EXTEND FFA FOR ALL OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY. MAY NEED TO ADD IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AS FFG VALUES ARE
LOW...BUT THIS CAN ALSO BE DONE WITH AN UPDATE ONCE THE STORMS FORM.
WILL COORDINATE FURTHER WITH IND BEFORE ZFP TIME. WILL KEEP ALL OTHER
FFA/S IN EFFE4CT FOR TONIGHT.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY...FEEL THAT THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING ALONG A
PAH-EVV LINE BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH SLOW CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SPODEN

MOZ109-110-172030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
312 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 1997

...SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 305 PM RADIO STATION PERSONNEL REPORTED 2 FUNNEL CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. ONE WAS IN BUTLER COUNTY NEAR QUILIN...ANOTHER SOUTHWEST OF
ESSEX IN STODDARD COUNTY.

THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE NOT TOUCHED THE GROUND AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
TOUCH THE GROUND. THE PERSONNEL IN THE FIELD AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

AS EARLIER TODAY...THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY FORMING DUE TO THE
NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA AND ARE NOT RELATED TO
TYPICAL SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

PS

ILZ084-172245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
512 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 1997

...FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS NEAR MURPHYSBORO...

AT 500 PM...LAW ENFORCEMENT PERSONNEL REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN ILLINOIS. THE FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED SOUTH
OF MURPHYSBORO. NO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE OCCURRED.

FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
NO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE FUNNEL CLOUDS THAT HAVE OCCURRED
TODAY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND ARE NOT
CONSIDERED TO BE AS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AS THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH
SEVERE STORMS.

YORK

ILZ084-172245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
512 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 1997

...FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS NEAR MURPHYSBORO...

AT 500 PM...LAW ENFORCEMENT PERSONNEL REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN ILLINOIS. THE FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED SOUTH
OF MURPHYSBORO. NO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE OCCURRED.

FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
NO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE FUNNEL CLOUDS THAT HAVE OCCURRED
TODAY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND ARE NOT
CONSIDERED TO BE AS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AS THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH
SEVERE STORMS.

YORK

KYZ017-172345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 1997

...FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED NEAR HOPKINSVILLE IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

BETWEEN 600 PM AND 610 PM...A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED JUST NORTH OF
FORT CAMPBELL IN SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY. THIS IS NEAR OAK
GROVE...ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOPKINSVILLE. THE FUNNEL WAS
OBSERVED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER AND A MILITARY OBSERVER. NO TOUCHDOWN WAS
REPORTED.

SEVERAL OTHER FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SIGHTED ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. NO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE FUNNEL
CLOUDS SO FAR TODAY HAVE NOT BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THEY ARE NOT CONSIDERED TO BE AS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AS THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

YORK

INZ086-180015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
648 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 1997

...BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD TOUCHDOWN REPORTED NEAR EVANSVILLE...

AROUND 630 PM...NUMEROUS REPORTS WERE RECEIVED OF A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR
EVANSVILLE. THE FUNNEL CLOUD BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN FOR ABOUT 30 SECONDS O
TNORTH SIDE OF EVANSVILLE...CAUSING SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND TREES.

THE FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION
ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEY ARE NOT CONSIDERED AS
DANGEROUS AS THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IF
ONE IS SIGHTED...BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER.

YORK