Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 PM CST SAT JAN 4 1997

17Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH COLD FRONT
EAST OF COU...TBN AND EXTENDING INTO NW ARKANSAS. VISIBLE LOOP SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS...BUT A FEW BREAKS NOTED IN ARKANSAS. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS WELL DEFINED S/WV HEADING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ADAP LIS ARE NEAR -2...BUT CAP STILL ABOUT 3 DEGREES. FORECAST ISSUES
TO ADDRESS INCLUDE TSTMS THIS EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURE TREND BEHIND
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THIS FCST CYCLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS INTO THE
EVENING. UVV'S WILL BE ENHANCED AS JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION INVOF
THE FRONT BELOW. THIS WITH LIS 0 TO -3 MEANS THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT AS 8H TEMPS DROP AT LEAST 10 DEG OVERNIGHT.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND...BUT BREAKS EXPECTED
AS MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH MIXES IN. GUIDANCE NOS FAIRLY CLOSE.
>
1000/850 MB THICKNESS 24/36 HOURS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GO NOWHERE WITH GOOD COLD AVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY. CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH LOW TROP MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND CLOSED OFF 5H SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE FA...AND SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

ZONE               LOWS          HIGHS         POPS
WRN KY PAH         LOWER 40S     LOWER 40S      6-
WRN KY HOP         MIDDLE 40S    MIDDLE 40S     7-
SRN IL             AROUND 40     AROUND 40      6-
SE MO              UPPER 30S     AROUND 40      6-
SW IN              LOWER 40S     LOWER 40S      7-

ILZ075>078-080>094-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-042300-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - VALID UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 AM CST SAT JAN 4 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT OVER ALL OF WEST KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL IOWA LATE THIS MORNING...
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI
TO JUST EAST OF HARRISON ARKANSAS. THE CENTER OF STRONGEST JET STREAM
WIND WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE CORE OF THE JET
STREAM WIND WILL INTERACT WITH FRONT BY LATE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND PROFILE. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALREADY PRESENT IN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING
WIND APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

LATE MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER ARKANSAS.
IF SOME OF THE BREAKS WORK INTO THE AREA...THE ADDED WARMING WILL ONLY
MAKE THE AIRMASS MORE UNSTABLE...INCREASING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE EAST / NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.