Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CST FRI FEB 28 1997

POPS AND QPF ARE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. 850 JET WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS
TONIGHT...ADVECTING VERY MOIST GULF AIR NORTHWARD. FWC DEW POINTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY 18Z SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BE A
BIT CONSERVATIVE IN VIEW OF 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY POISED
ALONG THE GULF COAST. PREFER ETA 1000 MB DEW POINTS...WHICH RISE
INTO THE MID 60S OVER WRN KENTUCKY SATURDAY.

TSRA DEVELOPED IN STRONG 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES.
ETA/NGM INDICATE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE QPF OF BOTH MODELS
TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ACTIVITY INCREASES IN COVERAGE
AS IT REACHES THE FA TONIGHT. MODEL QPF SEEMS A LITTLE UNDERDONE
CONSIDERING THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPLY AVAILABLE.

LOW CLOUD DECK OVER ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS BEEN MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS NORTHWARD...AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FA THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FWC LOWS TONIGHT.
LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN COOLED AREAS.

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR SATURDAY IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ETA IS
FASTER WITH ITS MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...TAKING IT TO NEAR CGI
BY 00Z. BOTH MODELS SHOW AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING
OCCURS...I.E. WHETHER LOW CLOUDS BREAK. WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE....HOWEVER BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
TO THE SOUTH. ANY MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF COAST REGION COULD
UNDERMINE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH. SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 LOOKS
REASONABLE...PLACING HIGHER RISK SOUTH OF THE FA.

WITH HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLOOD
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

YORK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
435 PM CST FRI FEB 28 1997

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0415 PM    SIKESTON                  MO   .5 INCH HAIL
02/28/97   SCOTT                          REPORTED BY SCOTT CO. DES

RJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
435 PM CST FRI FEB 28 1997

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0415 PM    SIKESTON                  MO   .5 INCH HAIL
02/28/97   SCOTT                          REPORTED BY SCOTT CO. DES

RJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
454 PM CST FRI FEB 28 1997

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0435 PM    MOUND CITY                IL   .5 INCH HAIL
02/28/97   PULASKI                        REPORTED BY PULASKI COUNTY
                                          SHERIFF

0440 PM    CALVERT CITY              KY   .5 INCH HAIL
02/28/97   MARSHALL                       REPORTED BY NWS EMPLOYEE
                                          AND KY DES

PRESLEY