Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 1997

FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS AND TEMPS.  LATEST SATELLITE/88D LOOPS SHOW
CONVECTION ALONG LINE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROF ANALYZED AT 13/06Z ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS MISSOURI INTO EAST KANSAS.  WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT NOTED AT 13/06Z ON 304K SURFACE (ETA NTRANS LOOP)...500 MB WIND MAX
FROM 13/00Z RUC MODEL AND SHORT WAVE ANALYZED ON 13/00Z 700/500 MB CHARTS
...ALSO APPEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION.

NEXT SHORT WAVE ADVERTISED BY BOTH MODELS TO SLIP INTO FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING & BOUNDARY REMMANTS FROM CURRENT
CONVECTION...EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
(KPAH/KEVV) HAVE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES (NEAR 80) WITHIN REACH OF
ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPS.  CONVECTION SHOULD LAST INTO EVENING AND LAST
UNTIL TROF PASSAGE.  UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH
FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS TO
NORTH AND SOUTH.  50 PERCENT POPS FOR TODAY & TONIGHT LOOK GOOD.

FWC MAX TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN TRENDING DOWN TOWARD ACTUAL VALUES.
LIKE AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN TEIR OF COUNTIES WITH 80 TO 85 FOR REST
OF FORECAST AREA.

PAUL W

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-131845-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 700 AM SATURDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1045 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 1997

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE THICK VEIL OF CLOUDINESS...AS WELL AS THE RAIN...WILL TEMPORARILY
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A TIME TODAY.  EVEN AS THIS AREA OF STORMS
WEAKENS...MANY BOUNDARIES WILL BE LAID DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY ACTING AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WHETHER STORMS DEVELOP
AGAIN LATER TODAY WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER THINS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNSTABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6 AND CAPE VALUES OF
1500 TO 2000.  A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL
PATTERN THAT DOES NOT SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AND THEN INTO TENNESSEE.  THIS FACT...COMBINED
WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WILL
INTRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE BEST CHANCE
OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSOURI TO VIENNA ILLINOIS TO EVANSVILLE INDIANA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING VERY HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

KEYSOR

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-131845-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 700 AM SATURDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1045 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 1997

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE THICK VEIL OF CLOUDINESS...AS WELL AS THE RAIN...WILL TEMPORARILY
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A TIME TODAY.  EVEN AS THIS AREA OF STORMS
WEAKENS...MANY BOUNDARIES WILL BE LAID DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY ACTING AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WHETHER STORMS DEVELOP
AGAIN LATER TODAY WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER THINS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNSTABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6 AND CAPE VALUES OF
1500 TO 2000.  A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL
PATTERN THAT DOES NOT SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AND THEN INTO TENNESSEE.  THIS FACT...COMBINED
WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WILL
INTRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE BEST CHANCE
OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSOURI TO VIENNA ILLINOIS TO EVANSVILLE INDIANA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING VERY HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

KEYSOR