Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
105 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 1997

FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. NEW 12Z MODELS
ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL POTENTIAL NEXT 24 HOURS.
12Z FWC IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN RAISING POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY. THIS TREND LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE THREE
MODELS AGREE THAT A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE WILL MOVE EAST
...EXTENDING FROM ERN MISSOURI TO THE WRN GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY.
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD ADVECT THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER
ARKANSAS INTO THE FA. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR MORE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. COULD BE SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS WHERE RECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HEAVY...PRIMARILY SE MISSOURI.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS IT EDGES INTO SE MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN
THE VERY UNSTABLE UNCAPPED AIR MASS. MORNING 1 KM VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOWED A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES LAID OUT ACROSS SE MISSOURI
AND WRN KENTUCKY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST LATELY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW PERSISTENCE...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MOS
GUIDANCE. HIGH SUNDAY A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT...DEPEND(ING ON AMOUNT
OF CLOUDCOVER AND RAIN. ETA 2 METER TEMPS SUPPORT COOLER FAN HIGHS.

MY

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-281830-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 700 AM SUNDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1032 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 1997

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED
FROM STORMS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCED WEAK
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE SIMILAR TO FRONTS
BUT ON A SMALLER SCALE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A FRONT OR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEEDED FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
STORMS WILL BE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE WARMEST PART OF
THE DAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE SLOWLY EAST ABOUT 10 MPH. THE SLOW
MOVEMENT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD CAUSE
FLOODING PROBLEMS WHERE HEAVY RAIN WAS OBSERVED RECENTLY.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT EXPECTED.

YORK

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-281830-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 700 AM SUNDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1032 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 1997

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED
FROM STORMS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCED WEAK
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE SIMILAR TO FRONTS
BUT ON A SMALLER SCALE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A FRONT OR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEEDED FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
STORMS WILL BE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE WARMEST PART OF
THE DAY...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

XMOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE SLOWLY EAST ABOUT 10 MPH. THE SLOW
MOVEMENT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD CAUSE
FLOODING PROBLEMS WHERE HEAVY RAIN WAS OBSERVED RECENTLY.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT EXPECTED.

YORK