Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 1997

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS OBVIOUS...HEAVY RAIN AND FFA.

AS OF 1805 UTC...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WITH VERIFIED WARNINGS IN SOME AREAS. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SOME BACK
BUILDING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT STORMS HAVE
TROUBLE HOLDING TOGETHER.

IR SATELLITE LOOPS PUT MOST OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG GULF COAST WITH COLDER
TOPS. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS.

BOTH ETA AND NGM AGREE ON MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER FA...WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION AND TIMING. CONTINUE TO LIKE THE ETA SOLUTION
DUE TO IT/S SLOWER MOVMENT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BRING HIGHEST UVV/S
OVER AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 06 UTC AS SURFACE LOW NEAR TEXARKANA MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO FA.
.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 304K SURFACE SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. GOOD THETA E
ADVECTION OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AS WELL.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FA. VISIBLE LOOP INDICATING LOTS OF CU DEVELOPING
IN DRY SLOT AREA OVER ARKANSAS.

AFTER COORDINATIONW WITH SDF...WILL LIKELY EXTEND FFA FOR ALL OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY. MAY NEED TO ADD IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AS FFG VALUES ARE
LOW...BUT THIS CAN ALSO BE DONE WITH AN UPDATE ONCE THE STORMS FORM.
WILL COORDINATE FURTHER WITH IND BEFORE ZFP TIME. WILL KEEP ALL OTHER
FFA/S IN EFFE4CT FOR TONIGHT.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY...FEEL THAT THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING ALONG A
PAH-EVV LINE BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH SLOW CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SPODEN

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-171745-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 600 AM WEDNESDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY               SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTH IL
1044 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 1997                       WEST KY/SOUTHWEST IN

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND MORE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION BY THIS
STORM SYSTEM.

THIS AMPLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY HELP TO KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING BY THE
SUN. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND THAT IS
THE MAIN THREAT. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO FLOODING.

REMEMBER THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...EXCEPT FOR THE BOOTHEEL...AND FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARBONDALE ILLINOIS
TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY.

SPODEN

MOZ110-111-171730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1202 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 1997

...FUNNEL CLOUDS SPOTTED IN STODDARD COUNTY...

AT 1150 AM...STATE TROOPERS AND TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL
CLOUD NEAR ESSEX IN EASTERN STODDARD COUNTY. THE STORM IS MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD SIKESTON. THE FUNNEL CLOUD HAS NOT TOUCHED DOWN.

THIS IS NOT A TYPICAL SUPERCELL PRODUCING THIS FUNNEL CLOUD. IT IS MORE
THAN LIKELY A RESULT OF BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA. SPOTTERS AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

PS