Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
208 AM CST SAT MAR 1 1997

FORECAST ITEMS CENTER ON TIMING OF SUBSEQUENT THUNDER EVENTS
AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

MODELS SHOWING SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO NEAR MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY.  COPIOUS MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD ON
HEELS OF 50+ KT H85 JET WITH H85 DEWPOINTS AOA +12C.  BOUNDARY ON SFC
MAPS FROM NORTHERN KY INTO EASTERN ARK SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY AS PLAINS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  COULD SEE SLIGHT
BREAK IN ACTION DURING MORNING HOURS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS FURTHER NORTH
BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.  CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT.  CHANCE OF SEVERE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO WEST KENTUCKY THRU PERIOD...BUT LOTS OF RAIN THIS STORM
(AND THROUGHOUT MOST OF WINTER) HAS LEFT GROUND SOGGY AND WILL SUGGEST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST W KY TODAY.  SEE ALSO GRAPHICS 93/94E.
.
FWC IS UNDERDOING TEMPS ATTM BUT SHOULD NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD
ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CLOUDS/SHOWERS MAY LIMIT DIURNAL RISE SOME.

SDB

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-011900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1115 AM CST SAT MAR 1 1997

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR-STATE REGION INCLUDING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE THE NECCESARY INGREDIENTS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.

STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT
AND PUT AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST.
.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLOODING IN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS WILL BECOME NECCESARY
IN SOME LOCALES LATER TODAY.

SDB

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-011900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1115 AM CST SAT MAR 1 1997

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR-STATE REGION INCLUDING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE THE NECCESARY INGREDIENTS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.

STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT
AND PUT AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST.
.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLOODING IN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS WILL BECOME NECCESARY
IN SOME LOCALES LATER TODAY.

SDB